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Honored Advisor

Report day and nobody is noticing.....

........that our nation's carryover and the current crop prospects are dwindling.   Demand continues to be pretty good.  Of course, maybe there wasn't as much in those bins as the experts thought.

12 Replies
Advisor

Re: Report day and nobody is noticing.....

Exactly, I love the headlines Traders shrug off report lol what a joke.💰📈🙇🏻💬
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Honored Advisor

Re: Report day and nobody is noticing.....

The traders aren't the only ones......I can't even the news from this website.   Smiley Mad

 

BTW illinifarmer, how are your crops over there?   We had another 3.6" in the last three days.   The wet holes and crop losses just get bigger with every rain over here in NW Ohio. 

Advisor

Re: Report day and nobody is noticing.....

I'm agreeing with you. Weather and crop conditions are not very adequate anywhere. Rain on and off for more than a month here and still coming. Little early to tell yet, however there are soybean fields all over put here that never even got planted. I'd estimate yields at 75% at best if nothing changes significantly. Only avg. about 155 corn 45 beans in my dirt anyhow. On normal weather year not 250 and 65 like some people believe.
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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Report day and nobody is noticing.....

So, illini, you are estimating 75% of 155 = 116; and 75% of 45 = 34. You want to stick with those numbers?

 

Too big a percentage of fields are hills. Sorry for your loses, we have them too, but at this point, and especially on this site, farmers are building arks and running for the hills. The weather forecast is practically perfect for most of the wet areas for next 10 days. Our 25% early planted is tasseling into near perfect conditions.

 

Only point I am trying to make is that everyone should be careful to not let the pain of loss and the grieving lead them into bad decisions, which every post in this thread would lead too.

 

This weeks "IN Agri-News" had full page spreads with the governor visiting farmers who claim to have lost 50% of their corn crop. Farmer after farmer after farmer, everyone using the same 50% number. Group think. I've scouted some of the areas and know some of the farmers. They are great guys, but, the 50% number they are using is 50% of perfect, which no one ever gets in IN. (well EC-IN once in a while). A more rational estimate in the worse areas is 25% loss. An even more rational number would put IN state yield at 3% below average, or 5% worst case. This is not a statewide disaster. Yes, it is in a few counties, but just be careful with the math and the emotions is all.

 

Point #2: On a public site like this...what happens. What do you notice about the last 3 weeks. Who is posting, who is not posting, how many posts, market-eye headlines, just set back and ask yourself, what is not there. (Hint: they live in N-IA, MN with antlers)

Yes, anyone with a good crop, DISAPPEARS, in respect to those with losses. This lack of balance is bad for your financial health if you act upon it.

 

The 12.2 corn crop mantra should come with a warning from the Surgeon General.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Report day and nobody is noticing.....

Time, you are correct......it is "duck and cover" for anyone who actually might have reasonable crop prospects....

 

the lower 25% of Iowa has reduced crop prospects but only accounts for 10-12% of the state's production

 

right now, a 185-188 yield with a 2.5 byn crop is still possible, with the obvious caveat that if we get blown out on excess water next 30 days, things can go south....but that is always the case...

 

excessively wet conditions are difficult fo trade and it will take until Jan report to get the bulk of information into the market....

 

fellas, we just had an 85 cent rally in Dec corn since mid June......keep a cool head 

Honored Advisor

Re: Report day and nobody is noticing.....

Good post Ray!  Especially your last sentence.  

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Senior Advisor

Re: Report day and nobody is noticing.....

Hey Time- I didn't know that Atlanta was in EC-IN area - lol   I have to agree with your thoughts - I have not been to Northen IN were it is worse - But have heard and talked to guys just South of me that has great crops - when I was catching all the rain - they were dry - Heck - just South of me - oh about 18 miles or so - They are outstanding - here at poor acre farms - some good - some average and some down right poor - so to me - it may be an average crop , lol

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Senior Contributor

Re: Report day and nobody is noticing.....

I haven't traveled very far this year.  Crops here in Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa look good.  But there are holes. We have enough rain to cause problems on the poorer tiled land. The guys with the sand farms look great. The later planted beans don't look good.  It is a long way for them. We don't need anymore rain for awhile, just heat and sun.

Putting up hay has been an adventure.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Report day and nobody is noticing.....

Ken, I have not yet made a trip through the eastern cornbelt, and I suspect that some of those soils impacted right now may be more forgiving than ours.  I don't expect IL/IN/OH to yield half of what they did the last two years.  You might want to have a look at how our part of the world fared in 2010 though.  Our yield losses then were entirely due to excessive early-season moisture.  Worse yields than the drought of 2012, and the corn literally never had a prayer of recovery.  BTW, recently did a 500 mile road trip catching a lot of backroads in northern IA and I'll concur with Ray that Iowa can average in the 180s with favorable weather going forward.  

 

 

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