cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Frequent Contributor

Report inconsistency is the worrisome problem

Either the Dec or the Mar stocks report is incorrect. The disappearance of corn for feed, ethanol, exports was simply far short of what had to be the actual disappearance. According to USDA the 2nd quarter corn use decline year over year amounts to 87% of the entire year's project decline in corn use. This undercounting for use signals to me that either Dec stocks was too low or Mar stocks inventory too high. Either way it points to a major, major weakness in USDA reporting of the quarterly stocks number. That is simply not acceptable. If USDA cannot improve their estimation procedures, we might be better off having the private firms do it (they are gonna do it anyway) and have USDA save the money.

0 Kudos
8 Replies
Contributor

Re: Report inconsistency is the worrisome problem

Amen! It seems as though the USDA reports are assumed as fact by the markets, while all private "estimates" are considered just that... Estimates. In my opinion , the "official USDA numbers" are not omniscient. Let's sequester that. haha. 

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: Report inconsistency is the worrisome problem

Sooooooo you would expect a private, FOR PROFIT, company, that is out to make ever penny possible, to give you results other than those that would make the most money for them?

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Report inconsistency is the worrisome problem

Someone needs to be held accountable at the USDA.......that's a tall order since they seem to have a hard time counting.

 

Again I will say, folks aren't that upset with the inconsistant numbers. They are upset with the traders reaction to these numbers, 

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: Report inconsistency is the worrisome problem

IMO they must have  the final yield wrong in corn if the stocks number is right. 400million divided by 87m acres is only around 4bu/a which is IMO an acceptable amount to be off.

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Report inconsistency is the worrisome problem

To say that the federal government is not a for profit group of individuals is blindness.  And denial of the political realities.

 

The debt hanging over their heads and the grease that is needed to keep the political wheels turning is a bigger insentive than any profit margin in private industry.

 

Those threats of reduced budget and benefits may be annoying to us, but they strike fear in every usda employee who knows his or her job would not exist if it were not for food stamps--- which has nothing to do with agriculture.  They are not going to author a report without the thought of keeping egg off of usda's face.   Creating panic in the market is out of the question.

 

If the soil temp never gets over 40 degrees and 110 percent of the corn seed gets returned there will still be a 12 billion bushel corn crop hidden in those farm bins next winter.  

 

A private, FOR PROFIT, company would at least know where the crop they are lying about is located.  Their future would depend on it.  I wish the future of the usda depended on the accuracy of their work.

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Report inconsistency is the worrisome problem

sw, Your last sentence thoughts are shared by almost every farmer in the USA.

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: Report inconsistency is the worrisome problem

AGREE! 1000% I wish I could get a job at the USDA. Back and forth.

0 Kudos
Contributor

Re: Report inconsistency is the worrisome problem

FOR PROFIT companies would need to be accurate or they would not be FOR PROFIT for very long. The capitalist system has that neat way of weeding out poor performance, this does not seem to affect the USDA. 

0 Kudos