Report notes & early call

[jrsiajdranch]

Po-ed corn last week in the central valley of CA was 7.78/ bushel!   If this market goes this much higher today corn will be over $8 in the big dairy area of CA. THey have already drastically cut consumption. I wonder how much more they can cut?  It is also a very bearish report if you sold to early!

[jrsiajdranch]

Jec22 said: 

For Iowa’s economy, the surge in the price of corn from $3.50 per bushel last summer to the current $6.75 level, and the rise of soybeans from $9 per bushel in June to $14.43 today has added an extra $7 billion in cash above the $13 billion farmers received for their corn and soybeans  a year ago.

Didn't know all Iowa farmers will still holding on to all their 2010 crop...and will be smart enough to pick the top.

Well at least this way if the legislature uses this big income number they can balance the budget! HE HE

[jec22]

Jr, you are right and all the counties are working on raising on property taxes... with housing values down..they might come at us with scoop shovels.

[p-oed Farmer]

JR...... You know as well as I do that the price of mike should be at 30 bucks not 16........ This will unfortunately push the industry in that direction...... p-oed

[Soyfarmer]

My concern is that if this goes down 10% each report we are in drastic trouble! This is serious for all concerned.

[ag678]

Won't the carryover kind of take care of itself due to physical shortages in different parts of the country.  I don't know how much corn it takes to fill the pipeline, but I wouldn't think we could go below that level.  There probably isn't equal amounts of carryover sitting in every part of the country so come late July or August if you are a ethanol plant in the east are you going to pay $1 over the western markets or  pay $3-$4 more then your harvest bid  wouldn't you wait 2 months till harvest.  (assuming ethanol doesn't also invert as hard which is a possibility but I am assuming there is enough rins to prevent that from happening)

My guess is the real rationing won't happen until basis and bigger inverses persuade somebody to idle for a month or two.

[Sundowner]

FYI,,,,when stocks to use were at this same level in 2006 (5%)... From about Jan.  corn prices rose approximately 42 cents for a high in May of 2.745. But by the middle of August it dropped nearly 60 cents for a low that year of about $2.17. Back then a rise of 42 cents in 3 1/2 months was a good jump for those prices but now doesn't seem like much of a rise.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/CN/2006/9/linewchart.html

[Jed Stivers]

John, sorry it took so long to get back. Cotton will expend maybe 10%. With grain prices so strong that is keeping the guys that bought new combines an left cotton in the grain, no one wants to go buy a new set of cotton harvesting equipment with 6.40 corn an 14 dollar beans. The ones of us that stayed in cotton will increse some but we also want to keep our rotation going. The southeast and Texas are the areas that will see the increases. Was told at a meeting the other day that the world wants 22 million bales from the U.S. this year and we won't produce that. So going to be interesting if we do or don't. Thanks again