Today's report was probably about as good as we could have hoped for under the circumstances. While I don't think too many people are kidding themselves and thinking we will bounce back over $5 soon the report is welcome. It stops the bleeding in the corn market and may help stabilize things. Any other move up will have to be supported by reduced acreage come spring and robust demand. I don't think the Funds are ready to come back to the party in any meaningful way anytime soon so it will be a long hard pull to move things higher. At least this report does offer some hope. I am a little skeptical of the feed usage USDA has plugged in but am willing to reserve judgment on that for a while. Again, I think this is about as good as we could hope for right now. If it were a wildly bullish report that attracted a lot of fund money all that would be accomplished is to move corn prices back to a level where we would once again plant way too many corn acres. If markets stay flat going into spring it might help keep a lid on corn acres. Beans are anybody's guess. Of course the South American crop and how much or how little China buys are the key pieces to the puzzle. Although we usually tend to pay more attention to South America and China than production here at home we are probably in for a bit of a shock if farmers follow thru on all of their threats to plant a lot more beans. Someone called the bean number bearish today but I look at it as more of a neutral report on the beaners. Could of been a lot worse folks and there is some room for optimism. Wouldn't run right back out and start bidding up the $300 and $400 rents again though.
Steve: good post BUT could you break it up into paragraphs occasionally? Would make it a lot easier for the less gifted of us to read it.
The bean # is very suspect in my mind. Has that magic 150 # in there again, If they are going to use that # at least put an asterisk in there to state their best guess on how many of those will have to be imported into the south and south east next summer to achieve it.
The corn # was adjusted about as far as they dared and not get $7 corn by next Wed. The large supplies of the two major crops already have the "bloom off the Rose". Here we are with a positive basis in corn the first part of Jan in my neck of the woods here in Iowa. (only a nickel on the Mar month but + all the same). The first 2 B of the corn crop just filled the pipeline and that pipe has been running full pressure since.
A few things I 've been reading about wheat is that milling Quallity wheat is in tight supply might be not as pleantiful supplies as is advertised. I'm not a wheat guy but might be planting all wheat next fall out west? Going to take above average moisture out there shortly to keep me from summer fallowing it all.
BTW the drought isn't over yet in many areas. I sold 5 loads of corn stalk bales yesterday and was out on the bottoms gathering them up... lots of cracks out there. If the bottoms are dry the hills are in trouble. No tile lines running since late summer here in South Central Iowa.
I don't think we will see much more of a drop in 2013 production numbers. They are what they are.
Have heard the same thing thing in regard to milling quality wheat.
I might not have as much trouble with the production #'s as I have with the apparent double counting ofbushels in Aug.
New crop harvested Aug crops fill the viod in Aug and seem to be counted again for new crop from Oct on. Seems like phantom bu in the system somehow to me.
Illinois Steve, I agree with you on all but one point. Corn market has been stabilized for months now. Trading in a 20 cent range has been easy to follow versus the volatility we've had in the last few years. Nice to breathe easy for a minute though with all the corn bins piled up to the roof.
I thought CAD was less than USD, not more
Like 92-93 CAD =1.00USD
4.90CAD=less in USD
Maybe I don't understand the meaning of the post
Steve some info on beans
Crush in Sept was 107 mln bu
the following was taken from a reuters report in mid Dec.
U.S. NOVEMBER SOYBEAN CRUSH 160.145 MLN BU compared to OCTOBER 157.063 MLN BU, BIGGEST SINCE JANUARY 2010 - NOPA
U.S. NOVEMBER SOYMEAL EXPORTS 813,323 TONS compared to OCTOBER 701,802 TONS - NOPA
Some of the increase was "catch-up" with the new supply coming in but the increase continued
Cattle placements are down but these numbers say we are still feeding a lot of volume. Perhap supportive to the usda feed numbers.
One other thing, correct me if I am wrong, ---- as long as ethanol is running strong the ddg's or wdg's go to feed either here or wherever they are exported to. Doesn't this feeding also stimulate protein usage.
I think soy might be the one remaining in a short supply position.