Return To Trend Yields?

[JimMeade]

University of Illinois shows that if we return to trend line corn yields without a price increase, it could hurt.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2019/02/profitability-impacts-of-trend-and-high-yields-on-corn-and...

"In recent years, yields over much of Illinois have been above average. A return to trend yields would result in much lower farmland returns, particularly if prices do not increase. "

[sw363535]

Been several years without any real biotech improvements to make yields better.  We just went through the ownership reshuffle of seed tech so not sure what we can claim pushes the trend up these days..... but trend line is not real science anyway....... Is it?

Never have been sure what it is based on .... a monsanto claim before congress maybe..... (a plea to let us have the monopoly ??)

We have pretty well limited out the crop rotation improvement with beans..... 

And the irrigation development that actually drove the average yield nationally more than tech ever did has peaked and headed downhill...

That peak trend was years underway when we hit a little drought and found out how little carry there really was...

I am sure usda is still committed to "trend yield"  meaning always up........ in DC.

[timetippingpt]

IL yields are going down and prices are not going to go up? 

Like that is ever going to happen....geeze....talk about hoping for a ag crash....

Why don't they do analysis of how the last car in a roller coaster speeds up before it crest the top...just as useful.

lots of media salivating to report on on ag collapse....it just isn't happening and isn't going to just yet. 

[sw363535]

Not to fan this ember of a flame too much,-- today I read that stone and others are expecting corn at an 81m or less harvested acres.  With the acres yet to be harvested in several regions, I would guess we are now at 77-8 m acres harvested on the 7th of february.  Beans are still in the field in similar numbers.

Corn yields were not much to brag about in kansas.  We have not seen that steady up trend line....  But then usda yields have nothing to do with actual numbers.  They are there to pad the carry. A throttle on food concerns and an ego boost to those who think the economy can't function without their phenomenal work --never planting an acre or delivering anything edible.

Ks production is down for corn and wheat........ both crops that are past their production peaks...... Wheat acres have slipped 40% over several years in ks.

Corn and milo are sliding quickly to----

 1... lost water pumping volume.... and a promise from a new governor that another 25% will be cut from irrigation. (Probably wearing white, she won only 3 counties out of 105,--- which was enough to become Governor.  Needless to say those three counties can't feed themselves on the agriculture they produce.  And I am sure she thinks teacher salary taxes will make up for the loss of revenue of oil and gas, wind energy and agriculture production all chased out of the state by the voters in those three counties.)

2..... Cotton acres have doubled twice in the last three years and will again next year.  The most profitable crop for 2019 again... for the southern 1/4 of the state.  With the 5th Gin being built, the ginning capacity has doubled as well the last year.  Many have the choice to raise 200 bushel corn and pump 20 inches of water to gross $800 per acre or raise 3.5 bail cotton and pump 10 inches of water for a gross return of $1260 per acre   For those who have already lost the water it is an easy choice.-- or there is no choice.

3  ....... bean acres have gone up for three years now.... as they take the place of corn or milo on dry land as well as limited irrigation.   And will rotate well with wheat as the water and cash flow diminishes .  Yields will be limited by climate and rotations to keep the ground in place.

4 ------- the monopoly creation that congress so dearly loves to generate through regulation and taxing the rich doners in ways they will never have to pay, while casterating the other 95% with ever increasing taxes.----is not going to stop.... so fertilizer, equipment, labor --- most expenses will not go down and will limit acres of corn especially on the fringe or marginal ground.  Not as long as the chemical companies control the seed market with congressional help.

-------------------------------------------

Media........ it is a tough time.  Watching a segment of our economy that has had the respect of the world from the 1930's to the 1990's loose relevance and self destruct.  They represent a segment of the US baby boomer generation that grew to hate as teenagers protesting and now in their 70's are still hating and protesting from an editors desk or a teachers podium.  They want to see an ag collapse, or a financial collapse, or just a tragedy they can exploit to further a career. ------media is probably one the first private economic groups to be the victims of technology.  It is just too easy to read a column or a report on an event and imediately find film of it or information on or a direct transcript of the event.... or texts or emails  or another reporters microphone that was not censored to provide clarity and ........ provide verification of the "spinning" or "slant" creation..... We are a society gloriously out of control..... if we choose to be out of their control.

There won't be an ag. collapse....   But there will be a triming of the parasites that live off of agriculture.

[k-289]

SW - Do  you  have  the  making  of  another  Ambassador  in  the  works  - ?  

Entrenchment  of  policy  seems  to  flow  between  St, Louis  to  Lawrence,  Manhattan,  &  Lincoln -  with  $pend  yourself  $illy  on  patented embryo  and  paint  from  Moline   -    -    -

Wonder  how  many  1/4's  it  would  take  to  ca$h  flow  an  operation  on  Mars,  cause  there is  going  to  be  how  many  populated  there ,   by  2084  - ? 

Feeding  the  Universe  -  roll  the  press   -     -     -   

[sw363535]

It is the microcosm of the national problem.......

Concentrated populations often being the least informed voters in government and finance..... being able to outvote the majority of the country or (state)

In this case she sounded  the least qualified in the debates, but knows all the political catch phrases....  property taxes are jumping...

Wichita, Topeka, and Kc west side can outvote the rest of the state and we may have seen our last agriculture friendly Governor as we become the enemy of the "environment".... and the hicks in fly over country.  

She is not Ambassador material...

[k-289]

Seems  stuffing  the  ballot  box  in  3  counties  just  to  your  north  -  Douglas,  Lancaster  &  Sarpy  also  being  the  un- intended  consequence  short  sighted,  brilliance  of  land  grant  profit-see ,  going  to  be  the  race , to  witness  of  how  many  $500,000.oo  machines  we  can  leverage  to  harvest  1970  priced  commodities  -   -   -

I  THOUGHT  IT  WAS  IN  THE  CLIFF NOTES ,  somewhere -  uh  maybe  not - ?

Experts  still  haven't  figured  out  why  Grandpa  had  sows  running  behind  the  fat  cattle  -  and  a  sale  barn  population  has  crumpled ,  although  BIG  MACS  have tripled  in  price  - ?                

[roarintiger1]

Wait, It actually took college educated folks to say that a return to trend line yields without a price increase could hurt?

Well, here's another one for Captain Obvious.   

[BA Deere]

Drainage or for some irrigation pays the highest dividends.  The pattern tiling is done on more and more acres, I don`t know if it pays in every case with $3 corn...but if you buy an expensive car, you take care of it better oil changes ect, so of course it should be no surprise it lasts longer.    The best thing an individual farmer can do to stay in business is raising the best yields.  

If you`re in an area that gets 50" 60" of rain in the season, you can expect below trend yields, regardless of tile...unless you farm a gravel pit. If you have all your other ducks in a row and mother nature doesn`t knee cap you, you`ll have above trend.