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Jason-B-Meeker
Frequent Contributor

Rich Nelson: Quake makes the trade nervous

"The trade is nervous about how the earthquake will affect the demand for wheat by Japan. They are the worlds 5th largest importer of wheat. They are the number two buyer of U.S. wheat."

 

Read the full analysis here.

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3 Replies
Artifice
Senior Contributor

Re: Rich Nelson: Quake makes the trade nervous

honestly    the same amount of wheat will be used in Japan tomorrowq as a yr ago.

 

wheat seems to be ain a bear mkt is the better answer i think.

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nwobcw
Advisor

Re: Rich Nelson: Quake makes the trade nervous

  I just heard on either FBN or CNBC oil went down because Japan might not use as much oil with industries shut down temporarily.  It seems to me they will use more with all the cleaning required.

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Rich Nelson: Quake makes the trade nervous

No doubt the 'trade' is nervous about Japan. Now, define 'trade'. Then say 'who cares'?

 

The 'trade' is usually relatively ignorant of the physical logic and facts in equal measure to their concern.

 

Current ideas that consumption in Japan will 'go down' is ludicrous out side of direct areas where transport is blocked. On the other hand it is a sure thing that Japan has the infrastructure and technology to resupply its population even in the worst hit areas - guaranteed. The idea that Japan will quit buying food and commodities is just flat out idiocy - but 'traders' will say it anyway. So - are people going to starve and eat less? Not likely. So where will the food come from?

 

There are now going to be plenty of jobs for industry for rebuilding. Speeding the economy. Look at US industry after WWII. In this case industry will not have to retool.

 

Another example often given out is the reduction of commodity prices to the Asian Crisis of the 90's due to less buying by countries who's currencies collapsed. In fact that is NOT what happened. Grain commodity purchases actually rose slightly. But the 'traders' put out a different story and most were convinced, markets tumbled and exporters bought for less.When the numbers came in and were recorded the 'trade' had no interest in telling that their description of what actually happened was false.

 

 

 

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