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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Ride Me Down Easy

Waylon sings the grain outlook.  Ride Me Down Easy.  Will we regret not having sold more and will we curse the grain in the bins?  I don't know, but I'm in for the long haul this year.  Been wrong before.  Probably more often than not.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XS3IE3ktJ8

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3 Replies
GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: Ride Me Down Easy

If the highs have been set, my charts show we lose roughly 15-16 percent in here which takes us just below $6.10 futures.  Then, we'll see one last rebound to within 3-5 percent of the highs before we begin to stair step our way lower.  With this in mind and the corn in the bins, one would hope on the next rally that basis would improve enough to offset the 3-5 percent.  This is just the technical analysis.  The problem is the fundamental analysis which would have to include the Middle East and the improved chances of a double dip recession here as well as Helicopter Ben implementing Q3. 

Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: Ride Me Down Easy

Your technical analysis must be the reason I am still long quite a bit of corn and none sold for 2011 yet either.

And if I am going to believe your techs now I better make a move on the next bump up.

Basis is still low enough to export corn from Ontario and that makes me think we should at least see a rise in basis. (lots of farmers have sold or are selling I guess) We usually have to import corn.


@GoredHusker wrote:

If the highs have been set, my charts show we lose roughly 15-16 percent in here which takes us just below $6.10 futures.  Then, we'll see one last rebound to within 3-5 percent of the highs before we begin to stair step our way lower.  With this in mind and the corn in the bins, one would hope on the next rally that basis would improve enough to offset the 3-5 percent.  This is just the technical analysis.  The problem is the fundamental analysis which would have to include the Middle East and the improved chances of a double dip recession here as well as Helicopter Ben implementing Q3. 


 

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nwobcw
Advisor

Re: Ride Me Down Easy

85% 2010 sold.   1/3 2011 sold.  Inputs priced and paid for.   If I can't make money at these prices I better quit.

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