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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Risk off!

Why do they say "risk off" just when things start getting risky?  Crude down $5,  Dow down nearly 800 as a new variant of Covid comes out of Africa.   The grains are in for a whoopin` at the open.  

25 Replies
k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Risk off!

What  else  can  go  wrong  in  Africa , along  side  of  the  $100's  million  banking  scheme  to  the  prominent  , deserving  class  of  officials  -  -  -  Business   as  usual ,  then  those  darn  chickens  come  to  roost  -  -  -

Seems  ironic ,  when  it  was  said ,   it  will  go  away  in  the  spring ,  and  now  this, supposed  headliner  -  ?  ?    

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Risk off!

China has a big footprint in the continent of Africa, I doubt we could weather another year shutdown due to a stronger pandemic.  I don`t know, maybe markets are over reacting and it`ll find equilibrium next week?   The political spin out of D.C. will be "I don`t know how much oil we burn a day, but crude is dropping in price, so leave me alone".   But connect the dots.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Risk off!

Fed. Res.  job  just  got  easier ,   &  don't  wana  bet  the  farm  on  risZing  interest  rates  today  -  -  -

How  does  this  happen  on  a  day  when  all  those   financial  Xperts  just  wanted  a  quite  tropical  holiday ,  then  have  come  back  next  week  to  cover  those   positions  on  bond  interest  rates  contracts  -  -  -

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Risk off!

Yes, if this is amounts to more than  "light holiday trading" then Jerome will be off the hook to raise rates.  I see the 10 year is in the green, as is Natty gas.  The dollar is lower.  Dow was down over 1,000 pts for awhile....the white shoe boys will be in Monday morning to fix that.   Bitcoin down 7.7% no surprise as it seems to follow equities for some reason these days.   

Just so youknowwho doesn`t claim credit for his opening up the strategic oil supply for crude dropping.   There is talk of closing trade on Black Fridays, however the piper has to be paid at some point regardless.  IMO just trade and get it out of your system albeit light volume. 

k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Risk off!

Greenspan  - Irrational   Exuberance ,   on  the  short  side ,  maybe - ?   

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rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: Risk off!

saw where corn bid of a local ethanol plant, southern MN, hit the $6 number finally. Another quarter, and they get most of mine.

My soybeans are my gold stocks...going to sit on them for a spell.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Risk off!

I think beans will require some patience, dryness in spots of S.A. something to keep an eye on could pay off big time.   I see the white shoe boys got the Dow back on board this morning, it`s like a old 903 Cummins motor just keeps on going.  Thank goodness oil made a correction upwards (ooops, maybe i`m not supposed to say that outloud  🙂  )  but I don`t mind paying $3.50 for diesel, if corn is +$5.50.   Back when oil was $40, the nickels and dimes in the corn market were hard to come by.

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rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: Risk off!

BA, that is what I tell my missus....don't be upset at higher fuel prices...we get it back in grain prices.

Also, the looney left should be happy as clams...higher prices means less consumption of those nasty fossil fuels, right?

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Risk off!

Seed  ,  equip ,  fert ,  positive , risk  on  ward  &  upward ,  pricing  also  -  -  -

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