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Senior Advisor

Rome Was Unbuilt in a Day

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/guest/zamyatin032820.pdf

Not to repeat myself but Adam Smith didn't say that there's a limitless amount of ruin in a nation.

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13 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Somehow, in the space of three months, .....

Somehow, in the space of three months, trump has gone from "coronavirus isn't going to be a problem"  to, "it's just a little flu, to, "it's hoax" to, "we'll pack the churches by Easter" to, " less than 100,000 dead will be a win".

I dread to hear what he'll have to say next week.

  You can say what you want but come Monday morning, the stock market isn't going like hearing 100,000 to 200,000 dead.  Hindsight is always 20/20 but the republicans (& America)  would have been better off if they had impeached trump and put Pence in charge back in Jan.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Somehow, in the space of three months, .....

It`s a very fine line to walk between keeping the nation optimistic and avoiding panic, especially in a nation where "things always work out" and the Atlantic on one side and the Pacific on the other shielding us from most of the world`s dangers.  But all it takes is one sick guy on a airplane and the world changes, just like in the movies.

President Trump shut off travel from China in January with Democrats fighting that executive decision all the way with the usual complaints ...you know the one`s.   Hindsight being 20/20 perhaps "shelter in place", face masks and all this handwashing (that we always should`ve done) should`ve also happened in January with the China travel ban.  However, then the howls of "Trump is over reacting!" and tv microphones poked in the faces of small business owners crying that "we are forced to shut our doors....this virus isn`t this bad!".  

If schools were shutdown in January, Mardi Gras canceled, Miami Beach spring break and Disneyland shutdown can you imagine the uproar?   20/20 had we done that and people would`ve cooperated (not likely) maybe 20 US deaths and we`d be coming out of this, but there would be charges "Trump ruined my business and my spring break travel plans...that virus was a joke...never amounted to anything!" .  That`s the advantage of hindsight.  IMO we unfortunately needed the PEOPLE to come to the conclusion on their own to be concerned enough for this current lockdown to be tolerated and adhered to.  And that involved deaths.

Our service based economy doesn`t take a heck of a lot to make a domino effect of problems and this little virus and the over reaction to it may be a different world post-Covid that never really recovers.  It was 30 years in the making, deficit spending, trade deficits, off shoring US manufacturing.

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Hindsight, not a chance,.....

Hindsight, not a chance, trump was getting detailed briefing all though Jan and Feb telling him what the implications of this virus were.  He simply ignored them because he didn't want to hear it.

  "Just the little flu, huh?  He knew better or should have.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Hindsight, not a chance,.....

Hey BA since you can carry on an intelligent conversation with the Trump haters on here ask him why Obama let 1000 of our citizens die when H1N1 hit our country before he started going anything about it. Are you going to be able to start planting on time? How is the weather been in your area. We are extremely wet in Southwest Ky. Probably going to be last of next week before we can do much. Thanks 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Hindsight, not a chance,.....

Obama if he were a Republican, the left would actually say "Swine Flu killed over 12,000 including chiiiiiildern!!!!!!!".   There`s a internet "doctor" we affectionately call Doctor Tik Tok, she says "That was different!!!! blah blah blah  it was different!!!!".   How the hell it was different, I don`t know, a death is a death and the death of a child is kind of a bigger deal than a 80 yr old....or a 55 yr old to include me in the statement. 

I tried to make a deal with the Libs if there`s less Covid deaths than the +12,000 Obama swine Flu deaths, will they give Trump some credit?   Supposedly Covid 19 is so many many many times worse than Swine Flu, a reasonable person would conclude anything less than 50,000 Covid deaths would be a major victory, but....

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Senior Advisor

Re: Hindsight, not a chance,.....

Nutters gonna nut.

I do think the Fed has the stock market covered for now. Don’t think we’ll see another bear leg until it becomes apparent that the intervention was inadequate to the challenges of the real economy. And we very well may throw another few $T at it before the election.

Gee, who thought that putting a failed business heir turned reality tv personality and his idiot son in law in charge would turn out badly?

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Hindsight, not a chance,.....

While I think this will ultimately cost several$T more in direst and indirect costs I very much doubt that there will be another big money hammer until after more market crash.

Cant really see either the admin or the divided congress doing anything but chasing behind the curve.

The online Trump army already getting impatient with this latest hoax.

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Senior Advisor

Only 50,000, where you been? Trump's ......

Only 50,000, where you been?  Trump's already set the bar at 100,000.  Trump, quote, "if we have less than 100,000 deaths, it'll be major win."

I'll tell you what, if we have less than 12,000 deaths, I'll give trump credit for finally listening to Fauci and Brix before it was absolutely too late, even if it took Tucker Carlson to light a fire under him.  Hell, I'll give Trucker credit and that's way more than he deserves.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Only 50,000, where you been? Trump's ......

Sincerely hoping it isn't that large but there's nothing but hope at the moment. Could be we flatten the case load, manage the cases and just look like Italy (but with more cases/lower death rate) and grind along at a thousand a day for a few weeks before it begins to decline.

Of course you're going to start seeing hot spots flare up in rural America now, too. And while that's a lot easier to manage it isn't anything anybody want.

If the serious shutdowns hadn't begun two weeks ago then we'd have been seeded into the inevitability of many times that*.

BTW, I see where FOX executives are said to be secretly concerned about civil liability for having minimized the seriousness of it and sometimes disseminating flat out falsehoods.**

No such consequences for those who do "free speech" on line.

* a counterfactual that will be denied and even ridiculed by the keyboard culture warriors but really inescapable if you think about the data and the timeline.

**very blurry line- opinion is probably protected. Being a partisan opinion outfit masquerading as a news operation is another thing.

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