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Honored Advisor

Room to roam

 "The average price of imported beans during 2017/18 are expected at 3,250-3,450 yuan per mt, with domestic prices ranging between 4,175-4,375 yuan per mt"

 

 

The Chinese are subsidizing their farmers to the tune of 33% to grow beans. They are hoping to grow 14.1 mmt will still import between 90 and 100mmt.

 

Corn is that much or more and they put a hold on Milo imports?

 

Prices have room to go to $13 + before they would equal their set price they think is fair and reasonable.

 

That 25% tariff would still have them under priced in their home market. 

 

They know food has value.

4 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Room to roam

Nice to know someone values our production.

 

I been reading that agrisensus site you posted ---- it is nice.

 

A search for information.  not just adjectives.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Room to roam

Swamp inhabitants of late have been trying to induce fear of this country finally standing up to decades of unfair trade practices against us.   If they had an ounce of humility they would be embarrassed.   This country has been pushed to where "freedom is another word for nothing left to lose".  Actually doing the right thing has brought about a rally in some of the commodities...i should say talking about doing the right thing.

 

This from the "other site" and poster Conan the farmer

 

https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=775693&mid=6699869#M6699869  

 

I posted these charts in the early hours of the Chinese Tariff news (here). They were swamped under with the activity of that day. They are attached below as well.

The Soviet Embargo had little to no affect on the price of grain in the United States. The 1980's farm crisis was caused by very high interest rates, farm debt from inflation in land prices in the late 1970's, a boom and bust cycle in commodities stemming from the 1973 Oil Crisis, and crop production disasters. It was not caused by low commodity prices per se, they were sideways for much of the decade. Prices were lower in 1977 for SRW more than any year in the 1980's and as low that year as the bottom prices of the 1980's in corn and soybeans, aside from 1987-88 for corn. No one argues we were in a farm crisis in 1977.

I had written a larger post and as I was nearly complete, my screen refreshed and it deleted everything. I was upset. I am not going to retype it all. Many will disagree just out of stubbornness anyway. It had citations and links to support my ideas. A couple are listed below. I will paraphrase.

The embargo lasted one year and ended shortly after Reagan took office. The embargo had no effect on prices in 1980 excluding in January when the policy was implemented. Price followed a normal seasonal pattern. The argument that the embargo caused a long-term change in production in South America is an unsupported extrapolation. Argentina had minor gains in that year from the affect of the embargo, but in 1981, the US would export a record amount to the Soviets. The Soviet Union would dissolve from 1989-1991, but growth in South American acres would continue without them. Brazilian agriculture sought to modernize and diversify in the 1970's. Their main agricultural exports at that time were cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar. The military Junta, which ruled Brazil from 1964-1985, created the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, Embrapa, in 1972-1973. Embrapa's primary objectives were to create viable commercial crops for Brazil's climate and promote mechanization and modernization of farming practices. The Junta's economic and monetary policies favored industrialization, not just in agriculture, but the broader economy as well. Brazil began promoting the modernization and growth of its agricultural sector before the Oil Crisis and long before the Soviet Embargo. There is not support for the idea that Carter's one year embargo had any impact on the trends developing and underway in South America at the time. This is reflected in the charts as well.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1981/10/02/us-soviets-set-grain-deal-providing-for-r...


https://agricultureandfoodsecurity.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/2048-7010-1-4

http://newsok.com/article/2166178

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Honored Advisor

Re: Room to roam

Anyone who thinks that Carter's grain embargo didn't have an adverse effect on farmers and prices received on the farm didn't live through it.  Period

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Honored Advisor

Re: Room to roam

Roarin`, I started farming after the Carter era.  As I remember grain prices were good in the 80`s, because I actually had to buy $2.35 corn to feed to hogs and $250 soybeanmeal.  It was the interest rates of double digit up to 22% that killed anyone with even a little debt.  True if grain prices were higher, then 18% could`ve been afforded.   But the $2.35 corn back then was raised with $60 seedcorn, $100 28% and 65 cent diesel and $110 rent. 

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