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Honored Advisor

Rumor mill will do great business

How soon will we see corn barging up the mississippi?  It is possible.

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12 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Rumor mill will do great business

I didn't make it up.  Just finished reading about a possible purchase from brazil.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Rumor mill will do great business

Wow! Where'd you see that, SW?
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Honored Advisor

Re: Rumor mill will do great business

 Jeff,

 

"There is a significant rumor that 1 MMT (39 MB) has been sold into US from Brazil.

August thru April

 

Not confirmed.  Not sure if it is true, but that and evening ahead of the crop report is pressuring the market today"

 

Got this through a brokerage release.

 

Secondhand with FC Stone inferences.


 

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Rumor mill will do great business

Rumors!    Where are the  facts?  It sounds like someone is on the wrong side of trade and they spreading this  &*&$) to run the market down.  

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Senior Advisor

See my post "Here we go again"

This is all bull crap, and is pulled EVERY time there is a supply issue. EVERY time. And they hope a forum like this will spread it around for them. The big boys seem to be in on it at times, and floor traders do it just for entertainment.

 

All you have to do is think about it. EVERY time grain is loaded ansd shipped it incurs charges and becomes more valuable. Especially as it changes modality (truck to elevator, elevator to train or barge, unload barge to elevator, load onto truck to go somewhere etc.) For instance - corn in Portland for export is OVER $9 a bu. Think about it. 

 

Brazil struggles with infrastructure AND the increase in their currency value under the socialists has hurt the excghange rate for the Brazilian farmer.

 

If corn is loaded into barges to be shiopped north from the south I'm going w-a-a-a-ay long. WAY LONG. Because it means the price will soar to unbelievable heights.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Rumor mill will do great business

Supposed to take 55 days for it to land here. In 55 days the Southern Corn harvest will be over, and our irr. corn won't have aflatoxin this year I don't think. The Feb corn is being harvested now, my April corn is going to black layer next week and that will be the last watering. While the corn is not supposed to move south to north I bet it can. I know it's not a lot of corn down here it is closer than SA.
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Senior Contributor

Re: Rumor mill will do great business

Edit to above...
It's late and I forgot to add. If the rumor is true it could be someone has a better handle on the upcoming crop (or lack there of) and are making sure they have a supply.
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Senior Advisor

Re: Rumor mill will do great business

You may be completely correct in regards to someone covering themselves. My point is corn in the south doesn't fundamentally affect rthe overall situation if we have a short crop in the corn belt. Just robbing Peter to pay Paul, as we are still going to be an exporting country at some level. It may save somebody's bacon that is favorably placed in the transport corridor but there were apparently corn deficit areas last year and it may be more widespread this year if the situation continues to deteriorate.

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Honored Advisor

Still waiting-------but not loosing sleep

It's late and I still haven't gotten a confirmation on the reported deal.  

My thought is,  we will adjust, be creative, make things work,  and learn a few new ways to survive the unthinkable.

 

The fact is there is a limit to what will be paid for grain and meat regardless of the supply level.  What can be sold can be bought, what can be exported can be imported.  There will be another way to skin the cat.  And It WILL rain, the rivers will flood and we will do our best to adjust to it when it happens.

 

These are good profitable price levels and we are going through a hell of a stress to our system, but one of the end results is grains and livestock are going to trade in a short supply scenario for several more years.  I think I would rather have this than for grains and meat to spike for 2 years and fall back to sub $3 corn and 50 cent beef.  That may have left more casualties than these droughts will.  

 

Market tops

I've never forgotten a deal where a local farmer sold his crop for 75 cents more than anyone else got that year.  Felt great.  And after delivering it 50 miles farther than anyone else was willing to go spent the winter trying to get the check to clear.  It never did.

 

Sell at a good profit, with as little marketing risk as you can.  Shoot for the highest NET return not the top of the market or the top yield.  The top of the market, the highest yield(at all cost),and front page of the Farm magazine have very little to do with success in life.  

You all know that----------------just remind yourself and your neighbor.

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