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Contributor

Rumor on Chinese rate hike

The stock market in China is down by as much as 5%, and global commodity markets are under pressure including the US futures market. Wow a 59 cent trading range in January Soybean tonight. About one month ago when China did raise rates by 1/4% we had a one night price break. I think with this volatility everyone will be more willing to sell rallies- what do you think?

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8 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Rumor on Chinese rate hike

Al,

 

It sounds like China is trying to cool off its economy. Their consumer prices are up 4% vs. a year ago. The U.S. consumer prices are up just 1% vs. a year ago. I heard the other day that for the first time ever, China will sell more cars than are sold here in the U.S. And, that is considering that only 2-3% of their population has cars.

 

To your point Al about the China rate hike, Dow Jones Newswire reported this morning that "Chinese media reported Friday that the country is setting out new rules that will forbid foreign companies from buying property there and limit foreigners to buying just one residential unit for their own use."

 

So, it seems there is a lot going on over there. In the end though, don't they still have to feed all of those folks and all of their livestock? It is scary to wake up to a 59¢ overnight trading range though, wow!

 

Mike

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Rumor on Chinese rate hike

Marketing today is unlike anything we have ever experienced before in agriculture.  I have pretty much thrown everything I knew (very little) out the window when it comes to marketing my grain.   Now it is just a crap shoot.  Weather, value of the dollar,  the Fed, etc.   Any one of them can have a significant impact on markets.  When they all get active it really gets volatile. 

 

I have little confidence in marketing advisory services as they have not performed much above the average the last few years.   I think my new stratedgy is "ignorance is bliss".  

 

If there is money to be made given my historical yields, I sell a little.  Keep selling as long as I am comfortable and don't feel overcommitted.  Works for me.       

 

 

 

 

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Contributor

Re: Rumor on Chinese rate hike

Just came from a lecture presented by a New York Times reporter. His book Wall Street Meltdown. In his Q&A he responded to the question of what do the BRICs think of us? His answer they think they will ascend and we will descend. Yesterday was Veterns Day. I have six medals you know the kind they give you for some one trying to kill you. I say this because in North Viet Nam I saw communism up close. Its terrible. I  find this info interesting to this question. You see they are moving in the direction to more free enterprise and we are fighting tooth and nail towards a more corp communism. I will tell you go to Hong Kong in 1966 and today. Go to Red China in 1966, the people where starving. look at it today.  I will look at the Gipsa ruling to see what the direction will be. A communist believes a commodity is worthless without the distribution of it by the labor side of the equation. We see it in the packers margin in the meat products. The final answer will come in about two weeks with this ruling . It tells me who will have the clout.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Rumor on Chinese rate hike

could you explain this statement

A communist believes a commodity is worthless without the distribution of it by the labor side of the equation

I really didn't understand that,  thanx

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Contributor

Re: Rumor on Chinese rate hike

Thanks for the reply JR. I presented the question to my daughter who studied in Europe. Master of Research at University Cambridge. She thought I may be a little strong. She thinks its more that labor is exulted in the distribution system.  Any way her idea is the Brics will not prevail if we get our act together. We have great infra structure. built by the sweat of many years. They on the other hand destroyed or squandered much of theirs, Stalin killing their farmers. and just plain corruption. In ending, I have two daughters that studied comunism, in the leading schools of the world, many students just plain fall to pieces on these studies, if you want more information you can google it.  Again thanks for the question.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Rumor on Chinese rate hike

Tell me if putting it this way might be better again I am not putting words in your mouth I just think that this may clarify it.

 

Commodity values should be distributed to the worker.  Regardless of the workers financial or moral investment in the commodity.

 

Is that what you meant?

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Highlighted
Contributor

Re: Rumor on Chinese rate hike

Agree.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Rumor on Chinese rate hike

the ultimate sad fact is the chinese can play the market  to their advantage . with that power they can make enuf money  to  buy the corn and beans they need very cheap if not free

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