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Senior Advisor

Russian planting reductions

The Russian ag minister confirmed that excess rain is reducing winter wheat planting by at least 8+%.  I will guess that with lower quality spring harvest this year the government will seriously think about rebuilding reserves by adding the 6 MMT from this year's harvest as it has said it would.

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7 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Russian planting reductions

giving up emotionally after a few imperfect nars    ? weak thinking..they  need  the  dough. All of Russia's economy  is smaller than the  ECONOMY of LA county USA !   E expansion  of wheat is nearly everywhere else,    HIGH prices assures it !! . the

horizon is for far larger world wheat crops        . 

 

//

aside DON"t ever suggest "we" leanred sesaonal, scaled hedeging did not work.

You are you, I do my own thinking nd observe fqcts.

If EGYPT buys you sell some. They  are not advantaged wheat analysists,  disadvantaged in fact. desperate.

when Russia cancels exports SELL some . help supply needs.

Look at he ecord.  vs what you think works. is an idea

 

 

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Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: Russian planting reductions

Golly, someone woke up on the wrong side of the bread.
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Senior Advisor

Re: Russian planting reductions

Artie, I can't really even understand what you have typed, though based on your repetitiveness I can just imagine Smiley Wink

 

And I have a hard time understanding why you are so threatened by objective and corroborated (eventually) information.

 

Experts? I have access to some of the world's best analytical minds on global grains. I respect their information capabilities and research a great deal. I'm very fortunate they share their knowledge.

 

Other than that you have become almost the perfect fade. So far you are an almost 100% winner that way. Uncanny is the only thing I can say.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Russian planting reductions

Pritch here, Typos fixed   -- {  giving up emotionally after a few imperfect yrs is weak thinking, Russia ..they  need  the  dough. All of Russia's economy  is smaller than the  ECONOMY of Los Angeles  county USA !   Expansion  of wheat the world round is happening,  nearly everywhere,   HIGH wheat prices assures that. The horizon is for far larger and larger world wheat crops        .

 //

Aaside:  DON"t ever suggest "we" leanred sesaonal, scaled hedeging did not work.-you keep saying it, there is no WE.  You are you, I do my own thinking and observe facts. If EGYPT buys you sell some wheat. They  are not advantaged wheat analylists,  disadvantaged in fact. desperate.- you posted twice they were  savy as if folow them, -point is that it is FALSE, a headline like EGYPT buys  is a SE:LLl signal for a producer, HELP supply the need. or when Russia cancels exports SELL some,  help supply needs. WHEAT topped on that news!

Look at the record  vs what you imply  works-  is THE idea.

///

Experts? I have access to some of the world's best analytical minds on global grains.- doesn't show up in yout postigs, you are consistently wrong, lesson #1,, there are no gurus.  I respect their information capabilities and research a great deal.  You do others don't . You are not king of wheat, you re perma bull. I other can have opinions and express them , including disagreeing with someone's base philosoply

 

Other than that you have become almost the perfect fade. Really ? So far you are an almost 100% winner that way. Uncanny is the only thing I can say.[ what galaxy do you live in may I ask, are you B L I N D . 2013, bearishg from the seasonal on,  not that I expect to be right more than 60% of the time. And am nit here to give price advice. YOU have been bullish that whole time, did you forget ? I call that  canny. Plus ie you were bulish each time Egyot bought, ok? you thought it bullish when Russia stopped exports, whose interests do you look out for? hopefully no one marketing wheat.

"And I have a hard time understanding why you are so threatened by objective and corroborated (eventually) information." Why do you feel a threat, there is no threat, I am not threatened  >>  however , participants come here for market views, info marketing ideas, they do not come here to get one on one adice but really do not need endless misleading posts.  Your info is usually NOT collaberated, and not objective.  IE, 'Russia planting to be down 8%' did you post taht is 4 mmt vs a world crop of 708 mmt ,  no.  

 

Wrong side of bed, Mr Palouser wakes upo on the SAME side of the bed daily , I surmise anyway,HA,  the a perma wheat bull side!! .   Pritch forgot to GO to bed, too many interesting things to research. Palouser and Pritch argue incessantly. I admit I over do it a bit ie { Palouser are you new to this, ok not new!! . We are so different in how we see, understand and view market purpose. I like hedging and the CBT, he not and not. For better or worse,  I own some   bear bia,s he very big bull bias. It is healthy to see varying views, helpful for Pritch as well.   Granted it has to be tiring to other participants here. 

 

FWIW   My bias stems from all teh folling, 35 yrs in the mkt, the high cost of storage, the usual carries, developing nation economics and their economic shifts to more modern strategies, ie less ES vs. the size of their economy.  Long term low low returns on futures, because of storage, while nominal prices are a bit better over time. All commidities go up less than teh CoP. Crude oil was 20$ when Drake hit teh at well, that is 400$ in today's prices, A 152 yr bear mkt so far! and AG Econ major at cland grant college long ago. But I expect to be wrong  a plenty. 

Rgds Pritch

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Senior Advisor

Re: Russian planting reductions

Artie, my friend, you are really jumping to conclusions.

 

Your interpretation of whether I'm bullish or not is apparently based on the fact that I post news items that you don't like. It's part of my method and I like to get information on wheat that many farmers would not be aware of. Show me one time I've indicated what direction future price would be - up or down. That's not my method, and I assume readers can use any info I contribute any way they want. They aren't dumb.

 

You are right! There are no gurus. There is just information. As for your ability to guage whether I'm wrong (you must be a guru)? My only goal is to sell physical grain at advantageous times. I've had a hell of a streak. So, define 'wrong'.

 

Whether Russia or Egypt is doing one thing or another is always in the context of larger patterns and trends. Noting what they are doing is 'bullish? It's just information Artie. It's part of a pattern or trend that may develop into a larger trend later OR not. But being AWARE is primary.

 

By the way, heres only one of many sources for Russian wheat plantings likely to go down this fall (this has been going on for weeks, hardly a new issue). http://www.agrimoney.com/news/russia-grain-sowings-to-miss-target-by-3m-hectares--6334.html

 

Mark my words. If I post information on the grain world I always have a source - always. You usually indicate that the info is false. Not my problem.

 

By the way, LOVE the red! Keep it up!

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Russian planting reductions

Hate to break it to you Pritch but according to losangeles economic development corporation it's GDP is 544 billion, four times smaller than Russia's.
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