Russian wheat condition already affecting this market.
It is settling in cold and dry in Russia's important winter wheat areas (and Ukraine). It's below freezing. Poor emergence. The worst conditions for establishing winter wheat in Russia - or anywhere else. But Russia gets really brutal in the winter.
Most areas are only 40-60% of normal moisture.
As much as the global market depends on Black Sea wheat is also a measure of how much volatility is going to be present in markets from year to year because it is always going to be an unreliable source due to its climate.