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Senior Contributor

Russian wheat

    Has Russia found more wheat than previosly reported,or is the market going to have to slice its way though another (dubious) report?Does any one have a clue?

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9 Replies
Senior Advisor

Russia a mixed bag

They've had decent crops in their south but expect yields to be problamatic in the north. Meanwhile the Kazahks are having a tough time and they usually produce 15 MMT (to Russia's south).

 

The other question is how much reserve the Russian government will rebuild.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Russian wheat

clearly , dubious.  someone here tries to make somthing big out of small things iharmful.

in no year is the world's wheat crop perfect.

 

who has looked at price  vs projected ES/use in SRW

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Senior Contributor

Re: Russia a mixed bag

Through time, consuming nations come to realize, holding stocks is expensive.

Liken it to Kmart vs Walmart, Walmart went for high turnover, low inventory,

Kmart was stuck in its historic massive inventory holdings.

and Kmart went under.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Russia a mixed bag

Pritch, you'll have to write to countries like China and India with your concerns about carrying food inventories. It doesn't matter what you or I think about inventory policies. Fact is, they have used them, will use them and are using them. And I wouldn't think the K-Mart comparison is valid. Russia seems to want internal price stability for food.

 

Beyond that China and India each produce much more food than we do. We only produce about 40% of what China does, and much less than India. Each have different national reserve programs with different goals. They know markets and food. And they are the world's largest consumers.

 

I acknowledge the role of national inventories and their role in affecting global markets. Those are the facts. Theory has little to do with it.

 

 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Russia a mixed bag

Hope you had a great getaway Pal. Thanks as always for sharing your information and thoughts. Excellent response to PrtchHead by the way.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Russia a mixed bag

Holding inventory is VERY expensive.Carring costs amount to more than nominal value in 19 yrs.

 

This isn't 1880.  For those that have a "need" to inventory, the pro spec community is gadl to collect the storage.

 

If someone is pushing completely spurious stories about a  freeze in coffee and wheat are they a purposively ignorant. 

 

Someoen has to store the excess,  why impoverish the already impoverished?

 

Why does wheat collaspe each time Egypt buys wheat > are tehy shrewed? 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Russia a mixed bag

    On the other hand,not h olding much or little inventorie has its drawbacks.When global production problems crop up,consuming nations are at the mercy of much higher pricing.There is also the fact of production falling off based on the very tightness of the market trying to force the percieved glut to farmer storage!

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Senior Advisor

Re: Russia a mixed bag

Artie/Pritch, your approach doesn't need daily reports on developments in the grain world as you seem to depend on seasonals and patterns that only require reading futures numbers. It appears that you don't have good connections to news reports in specific areas of events. With your method you can discount government policies, developments  and trade. Good for you. If you don't like it then it's either false or subject to your interpretation.

 

But hang on, I've got more reports for you to dislike that I didn't have anything to do with originating.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Russia a mixed bag

Palouser   you might review econoimics.  Vs use the desire to hold inventories lessens , and lessens overtime  - FACT.

Sure they hold some.

 

A perma bull might only imagone holdoing lots of wheat stks   where as a spec who uses his resources to earn   thinks of un-stks, being short.

 

Over time the cost of storage is more then the nominal price.

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