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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: S R Wheat

Scoular often acts in the background as a 'consolidator' where they have little or no facilities. Their commentary is always downbeat when things are neutral and then cautionary on an uptrend. Try this out for a 20 cent day.

 

"Egypt has announced they are seeking 60k MT of milling wheat, and although the US has struggled to compete in the global wheat market due to the on-going freight cost disadvantage, it looks like other countries are having issues of their own, such as France having difficulty meeting moisture specs.  In a tender scheduled to close tomorrow, Japan is seeking approx 119k MT of food grade wheat from Australia and the US."[end quote]

 

Even in a year when we sell well here they are always saying we are in a 'defensive' pattern waiting for a little business to appear, etc. We've been shipping well and no comment yet that we have a production problem out here.

 

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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: S R Wheat

Much of the plains wheat can still be salvaged, but it's going to need some help real soon. I've been told by a couple different sources that we might have a wet May, not sure if we can what that long as a whole.
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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Today's

Scoular

 

am...   Spec money is doing the buying and most of the heavy lifting.  Volatile and ripe for corrective action.  Trade accordingly. 

 

pm...   Wheat futures leaped to their  highest price in over 10 months.  Weather, geopolitical events, crop rating deterioration and raw speculation worked to create a bullish atmosphere.  The US Drought Monitor has been buzzing and getting noticed.  Beans rose to the highest levels which produced additional complex momentum.  SWW turned upward and swept sell orders off of country merchant's desks.  Both old and new crop bushels found new ownership.  Opportunities dot the bid sheets; marketers scale into existing plans. [end quote]

 

As for 'specs' , never mind that they are paying the equivelant of $7.92 coast and I'm quite certain that if I want $8 they will pay it. I realize the market is 'ripe for corrective action' (it could be their motto) as well as ripe for any other type of action imaginable.

 

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425Cat
Advisor

Re: S R Wheat

Funds big longs now
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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: S R Wheat

Shaggy  - had one of the guys coming up US 54- Dalhart- Guyman said the dust was on the move  ---

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Today's

maybe short term corrective action..........they tested last Oct highs, but are still almost a buck shy of last YEARS high.

 

Cat, last weeks COT showed the non-comm (funds - per se) stil net SHORT.

 

THE index traders, which some also call "funds" are quite long, but no more so than when rally began - hope that makes sense

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425Cat
Advisor

Re: S R Wheat

Yes index longs . They were net short yes???
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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: S R Wheat

3 categories of large traders - comm, non-comm & index...hopefully you can see here.

 

cot.gif

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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: S R Wheat

289, yes I bet down that direction the dust has been a blowing. That area actually is much drier than me, and I'm extremely dry. Luckily my area hasn't had to much dirt in the air but we've had some. This drought is getting real old.

I know to wet is as bad as to dry, but I'd like to trade out for a season or two.
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: S R Wheat

IMG_0495.jpg

 

today we could see after the dust settled ------- takes a little wind to do that.   It is the gusts bouncing between 25 and 65  mph every few minutes that dig into the ground and do damage.

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