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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

SA weather

has been weird this winter, like much of the globe. Frosts, dry. Smoke from another big Amazon burn season.

La Nina looks like it is going to hang around, maybe strengthen.

Can't think of a good reason why this crop wouldn't be well sold, but might argue for being a little patient on '22.

Probably more a tactical than directional thing. May want to use loose option strategies and not get locked into anything that's hard to get out of.

 

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10 Replies
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: SA weather

One black swan downside risk is should the loyal opposition decide to tank the US economy and destabilize the global economic situation in order to seize permanent power.

If you think that risk is 0 you aren't paying attention.

Although in fairness, if they accomplish that, recent history suggests they'll make it up to farmers, if not much of anyone  else.

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erikjohnson61y
Veteran Advisor

Re: SA weather

So you think continued multi-trillion deficits WON'T tank the US and then the global economy?  

I just don't see how refusing to support continued money printing now that the pandemic is more or less a known quantity (basically only kills people about to die anyway) is going to be an "economic catastrophe".  I'm more concerned that continued reckless spending is going to lead to an economic catastrophe.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: SA weather

Erik, don't take the bait from Dave. He just wants you to waste your precious time wrangling over trivia, nuance, and mostly lunacy like the Repubs can do, or control, anything right now, hilarious.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: SA weather

Handicap it and lay your bets.

The stakes are high and the folks playing it are dead serious.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: SA weather

As a fiscal conservative about the only country that I can support is Switzerland. You know, where you have to pay a fee to hold their currency (negative interest rates) , pretty cool.  🙂 

Pardon me if I really don't care if they shut down the swamp. I've been part of it, it is ludicrous, just a matter of time before systemic meltdown occurs. I may not live to see it, but it will happen, and I'd guess I will see it since I am only 61 and government employment is going parabolic.

Wise men are buying dirt in multiple countries because no one knows which one will survive. I kind of like the odds for Australia actually. Canada would be my first choice if Trudy wasn't such an idiot. The Swiss, Grand Cayman, Australia, and maybe a bit in Indiana and Texas. Nice diversification. Just a thought Dave.

btw...this is a serious business discussion. Having everything in one country is incredibly risky, hundreds of historic examples, ya know like Ukraine, or France during the revolution, or Argentina, etc etc etc to oblivion.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: SA weather

You're a total idiot.

Switzerland has accumulated a vast off balance sheet portfolio of global securities in order to keep the Franc undervalued.

It is a xxxxing hedge fund.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: SA weather

To repeat.

That isn't a country, it is a hedge fund with some brown cows and a whole lotta criminal cash stuffed in banks. 

 

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: SA weather

Thank you for the high praise. If you think I am an idiot that is about as good as it can get 🙂

Chill....I said diversification. With 100% of our family assets in just one state in just one country, that is NOT diversified. Moving a little elsewhere is probably just a good idea is all.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: SA weather

The Sacklers moved at least $1.3B to Switz before their bankruptcy, hard telling how much to other places.

Crypto offers almost limitless opportunites to hide money.

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