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hardnox
Advisor

SP500

Back to even for 2015. It took a massive short squeeze, actions and blowharding by various central banks, etc. But here we are.

 

I woudn't rule out a positive close on the year- after all- in a ZIRP world the insurance co's, pension funds etc. all are in a world of hurt if there are no returns on stocks.

 

But fact remains, the world economy has slowed to near stall speed. Some indications are that it is a tad better now than it was in the spring and early summer but it is far from robust and you can take it to the bank that the various actions being taken and threatened by central banks will have little traction with the real economy.

 

The one thing they can do is keep stocks up, at least for a while, and if truth were told that is the primary, and very weak, mode of whatever traction is obtained in the real economy. There's a wealth effect and some psychological support if the smiling man on the teevee says that the Dow was up.

 

Along with noticably slow economies and trade, there remain big problems in commodities- going al the way from countries- like Brazil- to the massively levered global commodity concerns like Glencore and some can kickin' chickens coming home to roost in the US frack patch.

 

Big story dead ahead likely new lows in WTI as the US and allies try to finish Russia off.  The modest summer draws on inventories are over and weekly builds have been huge.

 

That's a cornerstone that supports my technical view about new lows in the CRB and why I'm not at all interested in owning grains even if I'm not willing to forecast new lows there.

 

 

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