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Advisor
Posts: 4,015
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Same Side Of The Boat

Whoooooooooaaaahhhhhh  Loooooook Ooouuuuuutttt!!!

 

It appears even more investors are getting onto the same side of the boat. Soon, this thing could tip over, don't you think?

 

On Friday, the CFTC Report showed that investors are adding to their already large short trading positions in everything.

 

The Funds are now short 222,000 corn contracts, 93,000 soybean contracts, and 152,000 wheat contracts.

 

What say you?

 

Mike

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 97
Registered: ‎07-04-2011
0

Re: Same Side Of The Boat

I would say every ag producer needs to get long the board and cut back on inputs and acres.
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,197
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Same Side Of The Boat

I agree with nutlug we need to get long the board.  When, is the question.  I'm awful on timing.

 

As far as cutting back on inputs, that's OK, but of course if the whole world is producing something me and I reduce yield, all I get is less gross income.

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 97
Registered: ‎07-04-2011
0

Re: Same Side Of The Boat

How much of a reduction in US production could the rest of the world make up for on short notice?
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Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,693
Registered: ‎11-02-2010

Re: Same Side Of The Boat

let em build that short position and keep green on the screen

 

one of these days its going to make for some really really really big fireworks

Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,111
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
0

Re: Same Side Of The Boat

Agreed Mizzou...corn could be expected to double in price in around 67 trading days, that would be normal.

And  no one will be ready for it...well very few of us anyway. It might not happen this year, but it will happen.

 

The report was hardly bearish anything, but if the people who control the news flow are record short, pretty sure they will stress how bearish it is. The news orgs don't care or even have any idea if what they print is accurate, how could they?

 

Marketeye, a flash for you. The real change in 2018 will be the rapid resurgence of inflation...  :-)

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,620
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Same Side Of The Boat

We might need the help of the stock market going lower for a couple of months before we see the boat capsize. Not sure this is in the cards near term.......as Trump policies continue to boost the economy.   However, if investors ever decide to get back to commodities in a big way, things will get interesting.   The door may not be large enough.   Timing will be everything......as usual.  Smiley Wink

Honored Advisor
Posts: 15,890
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Same Side Of The Boat

Inflation could bail us out, that is if you have your inputs locked in and not much forward priced.  Oil, gold, copper, lumber are kinda up and the Dollar is kinda down, so maybe our old and dear inflation fund friends will return for a much awaited visit.   However, I heard a guru yesterday say that "even a 2012 drought would not bring $5 corn back".  Well maybe a below trend yield in combination with the dollar at 80 and $100 oil? 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 907
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Same Side Of The Boat

$5 December corn futures is only a 30% move away

 

that statement just shows how beaten down folks are these days

 

we traded $8.49 in 2012??

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,050
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Same Side Of The Boat

And we are still trading $8 corn in the bag......... and at the equipment dealer...... and the transportation dealer. 

and the technology peddler.  And the internet acces supplier.  And especially at the games and in entertainment.  Smiley Happy