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hardnox604008
Advisor

Seasonal price pattern in warm winters?

For anyone with the time and a clue where to pull the data from, I am curious about studying whether other warm winters tended to follow typical seasonal price patterns or not.

 

Very well might be nothing there but one of the purported causes of the seasonal effect is the freezing of the upper river system.

 

Just curious if anyone has any thoughts.

 

Also on a unrelated note, I suppose that feed efficiencies have been pretty good this winter?

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5 Replies
rightone
Senior Contributor

Re: Seasonal price pattern, great post nox,

I'm curious too.

 

Feed conversions been great.

Feed quality in general is alot better than 010 feed was.

 

One thing though is there is not a whole lot of animal inventory left to consume fed product in 012.

Especially low cattle numbers and most that effect is from June / July on.

 

Smallest calf crop in 60 years was the 011 crop.

 

Keep in mind with the dry cycle winding down, a LOT of cattle inventory will virtually disappear into the environment on natural grazing too. 

Drouth effect is S so that is year around grazing.

 

 

  

 

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djsinseia
Frequent Contributor

Re: Seasonal price pattern, great post nox,

I agree.

 

Feed conversion has been good and the hay supplies are going to make it.

 

However, I think I have treated more sick cattle in December and January that I have in my entire career.......personally would have liked to to get colder and stay there than the constantly changing warm/cold and damp weather that we have been having.

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: Seasonal price pattern, great post nox,

Having said all that Rightone, do you agree with the USDA that feed demand for corn will be 600 million bushels higher in the 12/13 marketing year?  We can all cuss and discuss USDA's numbers on acres planted and yield all we want, but I have to question how or why demand for corn will be 750 million bushels greater in the 12/13 marketing year than it was in the 11/12 marketing year.  It's likely the cattle industry is in expansion mode.  This means fewer females enter the feeding chain and remain on the grazing side as they enter the reproduction cycle.  I don't see us feeding more to fewer animals.  Another thing concerning me a bit right now is the cold storage data showing the second largest amount of beef and pork in cold storage in history.  With fuel prices creeping higher and higher, the grilling season might not be so great. 

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rightone
Senior Contributor

Re: Seasonal price pattern, gored,

i agree, less animals in confined fed systems for perhaps Years now (cattle ).

 

ALSO, just do not see more corn use due to more ddg / co product use.

 

How do you grind more E, and not have more ddg / wdg feeds?

 

Also the defatted ddgs now, are thee big feed for a significant portion of hogs.

 

btw, the higher gas goes, the higher meats go.

Reason is they simply stay closer to home and grill more product. 

 

 

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Seasonal price pattern, gored,

I'm not well versed on river transportation, so don't know how much frozen rivers play a role and how much lock maintenance and repairs factors and barge availability factor into river markets.  River open is the same time in eastern Iowa although we've had a mild winter.

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