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Veteran Advisor

Sell 2018 Early?

I'm the first one to confess that I tend to sell too early.  Having said that, I'm inclined to think that early sales of 2018 crops might be best.

 

The numbers support a big crop in 2017.  Projections support a big crop in 2018.  South America is planting big numbers.  We've had good demand and the demand will have to stay good or improve  to help us get rid of the '17 and '18 crops.

 

It might be that basis improvements or futures bumps are all we'll see this year.

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2 Replies
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Sell 2018 Early?

Not me...everything you just said is:

1. already in the market

2. an assumption

 

jmo

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Sell 2018 Early?

Well, I appreciate your comments. You are right about my comments being assumptions and in the market.  I've always felt the only way to capture risk premium is to accept risk, and selling on trends and seasonal is on way to accept risk at a level I'm willing to handle (I don't use crop insurance, as you know).  It seems you are challenging either the accuracy or the wisdom of using these assumptions so early in the year.  I can't fault you on that.

 

What do you think of leaning toward a typical seasonal approach to selling 2018?

 

i have to say, when I talk about this kind of selling I'm always thinking most strongly of futures.  I seldom sell cash this early.

 

 

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