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Senior Advisor

Sell Now While The Selling Is Good?

Are any of you thinking of selling a few bushels in case it is all downhill from here?

 

The thing that bothers me about excess water is that it can reduce your yield but not hurt the overall yield all that much, thus you have fewer bushels at bad money.  At least a drought is often of a bigger area and if yield goes down prices may go up.  But, I'll contradict myself on that and say we cought the tail end of the 2005 dry speell that hit Illinois and it hurt our yields but prices didn't help uot any.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Sell Now While The Selling Is Good?

Jim,

 

I think the USDA has a tool they can use readily and that is :

 

Drop acres but raise yield or Increase acres and decrease yield.  

 

and the other tool they can use increasing or decreasing Feed usage as they see fit.  

July Beans are pushing higher.  

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Sell Now While The Selling Is Good?

With this corn crop already under 12.5 B bushels and with a fair chance of going under 12 B, it seems to likely there will be plenty of opportunities to sell corn for over $ 6.50 local co-op price this fall. I like to lock in at least some production ahead of harvest, but not making a lot of sense to sell now for $ 5.30 fall delivery when a lot of it is not even emerged yet. 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Sell Now While The Selling Is Good?

this may help, as well, Jim--from Mike (flooortalk) on report reaction:

 

At 12-Noon:

July soybeans have jumped up 12¢ to trade at $15.53, but has hit as high as $15.59. Why? Old-crop stocks, in the report, were not changed. And the new-crop soybean stocks estimate was equal to the USDA's May estimate and lower than the analysts average guess. So, all-in-all that combination is bullish. And up she goes!!!!!

 

Mike

 

I understood this to mean, since New supply did not enlarge as trade expected it to do----per the mkt, it is neutral to "not quite time" to remove the weather premium in New.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Sell Now While The Selling Is Good?

If you just focus on new crop soybeans, it is pretty hard to make a bullish case at this point. Perfect weather rally to sell into, huge call premiums to collect if you do that kind of thing.

 

And just from a timing perspective, high in Feb was 180 days from the 2012 low. High on June 11 is 270. Pretty easy math, even for a Purdue grad. :-)

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Sell Now While The Selling Is Good?

Time,

 

When were you at Purdue?  I went there from 1983-1987.  Many moons ago.

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Advisor

Re: Sell Now While The Selling Is Good?

Those are just numbers tack another 90 days on your 270 and boom!! potential contract high. Just numbers thats all

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Senior Contributor

WASDE report

This report isn't the one to show what problems are occurring with this crop, its the June first snapshot of the world, not a production report for here. People wondered why they didn't change acres in this report, at the time this report was compiled what had changed? We hadn't even reached the PP date and it isn't their job to to change planted numbers.