Sell Rallies? What Rally?

[marketeye]

What grain marketing strategy are you leaning on? The experts say sell into rallies and sell while you are planting.

Full Story: Sell Corn, Soybean Rallies? What Rallies?

Thanks,

Mike

[elcheapo]

A coupe questions while I wait to have the PU fixed.

1. Do the "experts" fallow their same advice ?

2. Rally ?? What rally ?? What is a rally anymore ??

3. Current marketing plan.... amazing Grace
(At the levels we are at, can you justify marketing
Costs ? We are told we have too much, we
Have reduced seeding to levels going back to
108 years, have a freeze event, and crop conditions not good. Corn, most is still in the bag,
More rain on the way, fertilizer is leaching further down in soil profile, some pre herbicide will need to
Be re-add, and it's still mud now.
Beans....more to be planted we are below $8.50 but
Local NOW.

Fed reserve outlook not good, USDA says things no
Better for next 10 yrs

[sw363535]

I was relistening to your podcast from December Mike. And recalling your search for optimism between fields yesterday.

Seems to me if we're looking for optimism we need to plant seeds of optimism. Or stop planting whatever we're planting. 😗
Tough times will create opportunity for the young? When the young already have student debt?
Seeds!

I read this weekend and referenced a wheat article on subsidies for wheat producers in India. Yet not that long ago we were told the WTO didn't like our subsidies and we had to change. And no one had those but us.
Seeds we plant.
It could be several years seeing fertile ground again.

[elcheapo]

What ever happened to the different colored boxes we talked about a few years back, your right SW

[JimMeade]

Things are bad now.  Sell the cash.

Things may get better later, own on paper.

Huh?  Who is doing the math on this?  Why in the world would one think a huge crop that makes us sell cash now will suddenly turn short so we buy paper and make money on it?

What event is going to make this supply change happen?  A black swan and nothing else.  Do we bet the farm on a black swan event?  

If one really believes owning on paper makes sense, then one ought to save the investment money and store the cash for later sale.

How do you borrow money from your lender to buy grain on paper when you've told him you are selling cash because there is too much supply?  Might he think this is speculation?

[elcheapo]

might he think you nuts ?

[sw363535]

This is what gets some of us irritated........  The only thing that seems to be marketing is selling.  

But I agree with the initial premise of selling and reowning.  and that's where the article goes haywire.  

In that case, why do you need a rally?  If your selling and buying on the same market.

Jim, the answer to the question is "seasonals" ...... 40 years ago in a "real" overproduction market the corn price didn't change 20 cents in a year.  Now we are producing into a "fake" surplus(45 day supply, not 1 year supply), and we are counting on a "fake" world surplus. (Assuming the carry in china or india is available to the rest of the world) Yet still a supply measured in days world wide.

The point ........ we still have seasonal moves in the market.  Not necessarily large but available to us.

When we are looking at a poor price year..... we are making a mistake if we expect our reownership to create a great year......

We need to take what we can get and not increase risk in an already risky year.

The world has changed to a just in time supply..... 45 days in a crop that takes 130+ days to produce..   It would not be working at all if not for the wild expansion in SA.  (proof that environmentalism is just a fundraiser)   since most of the worlds production is in the northern hemisphere.

a thought.............. Is a black swan going to be real or fake...  🙂