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Rob SC NE
Contributor

Sell something?

Roy Smith's new article is a good one, I think--about how these are still astronomically high prices, especially for a February, if you're keeping track of seasonal trends, as he has for a long time.

 

The technical indicators point in both directions, and as Roy points out, "for every expert who says prices are going up, there is one who says they are going down."

 

He concluds, "Notwithstanding my bias against selling in February, if current prices offer you a profit you are satisfied with, sell something. Be sure to save a little back to sell later in case the bull trend resumes. There is still a lot of time before another crop is produced in this country! "

 

Anybody have anything against "selling something" in Feb?

 

Rob

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2 Replies
Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Sell something?

I don't see how you could argue against Roy's logic - especially if you are unsure yourself. Dividing up your crop and selling on a time basis is another way to participate if you ar unsure, assuming you have already covered cash flow needs and  short term debt.

 

The other scenario is if you have a plan and a good sense of the market from your own experience.

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Sell something?

I have a lot of respect for Roy's opinions, although I've become a bit less than entranced by seasonal trends in the last 4-5 years.  It makes conventional hedging a challenge.

However, Roy's suggestion that it wouldn't be bad to sell in Feb if one is inclined seems to me to mostly say that prices are high enough that even mistakes aren't painful.

If one has a good plan and nothing has changed, then don't change the plan.  If one does not have a good plan, than high prices anytime are a temptation to sell.

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