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07-16-2015 06:20 PM
I haven't been watching them that closely for the whole corn belt, but have been keeping tabs on the long term forcasts for my area.
4 days ago, we were supposed to have a 7 to 9 day stretch of hotter than average weather, with almost zero chance of rain.
2 days ago, we were supposed to get rain 2 days ago, and also yesterday, 90% chance of more than 3/4 inch, and several days of cooler weather. Instead, we got a big sprinkle, and about 4 hours of below normal temperatures, before the heat inexed popped back over 100.
Today, we have chances of rain the next 4 days, from 20 to 60% depending on the day, with temperatures to vary from day to day from above to below normal.
They can't get the weather right 2 days ahead, so I have no idea how they expect to predict what it will be like in 20-30 days with any accuracy.
What I DO know, is that in the last 3-4 days, the dryland pivot corners, and any dryland field not in a bottom, went from looking very, very nice, to looking very, very hurting. If it doesn't rain within the next 2 days, I think they can kiss goodbye any hopes of yields above 70 BU/AC or so, except for a few bottoms or subirrigated ground.
What I am seeing, is the results of a long cool.wet spell, that lasted until some of the first planted corn was about ready to tassel. As many know, once tassels appear, the roots go no deeper. So, we have shallow rooted corn, that just can't reach down to where the moisture is, and it is burning up, at an alarmingly fast pace.
07-16-2015 10:05 PM - edited 07-16-2015 10:08 PM
thee trend is an Early freeze this year ( Everywhere ).
heck there may not B 10 B corn, Nor 2 B beans in the usa. MO
( gonna be plenty of cheap Feed for cattle, though )
Perhaps, Pray to Jesus, Win a Lotto. MO
07-16-2015 11:43 PM - edited 07-16-2015 11:49 PM
perhaps supposed big smart dogs like yourself can just keep on following the big dog spin.
good Luck to ya. LOL
07-17-2015 07:52 AM
I look at those maps everyday. If they end up verifying it could get pretty ugly. Your numbers could end up being close. You have been preaching those numbers for some time now. Long before the forecasts turned hot and dry. Why would your yield forecast not be even lower now than it was say a month ago? I too have been concerned about hot and dry in late summer for some time. If it doesn't pan out though you could very well be over a billion bushels too low again just like the last several years.