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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Setzer says

Futures done everything it needs to and it`s up to the cash market from here on.   


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2 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Setzer says

When it's down to the brass tacks basis is the equalizer.

Last time there was short supplies, basis did the heavy lifting the better part of $2 in southern Iowa.


So far this crop cycle, 

China had a weather issue and lost a lot of crop.

South America is not Having a bin buster quality crop

It appears we are not off to the races either with delays in the Delta.

We are at even basis bids on corn and beans here in middle of March, not even close to normal.


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Honored Advisor

Re: Setzer says

Someone is not paying attention since and before harvest cash basis has been dragging the futures up to where they are now.  Basis has been historically strong since last August.

This is a statement that most analysts get caught up in.  they have their eyes focused on the futures markets which in a demand driven up trend market.... the futures market is the last and final element dragging its feet all the way.  Futures analysts think they can predict the future by knowing the past, and therefore miss major changes in trend nearly every time.  She is so late to the game she doesn't need a ticket.

Our renound futures expert is just now recognizing what basis was telling us for 8 months and dragging futures markets up 40 to 60% while our predictors sit and wait for harvest to drag prices down.

One of my observations to the "marketing" guru's is they ignore basis thinking it is a local issue......... yet for example, the grain sorghum china sales in 2020 were filled by the actions of basis alone, for all of us to observe.

Every item on hobby's list was ignored or down played by nearly every marketing advisor during harvest while the futures trade went up almost daily.    Telling us a couple of things that are obvious ........ and one that I hadn't thought of.  Most of the buying and selling for the last 6 months while futures steadily went up were not listening to the analysts that have a platform in the midwest.  Why do we hire them.  Our futures markets have moved on to a world platform.  Have our advisors?

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