cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Shadowstats John Williams inflation or implosion

or both?   This is what pauses me on getting wild on selling new crop.  USFR Brian Split talked about Safrinha crop in trouble, China buying and everyone else scrambling.  But cautions on a "shoulder" appearing on the corn chart.

https://www.agweb.com/us-farm-report

Inflation & Implosion – Hyperinflation in 2022 – John Williams

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com, says the Federal Reserve has painted itself into such a tight corner with the economy it really has only two choices.  Williams says it comes down to “Inflation or Implosion.” What would happen to the financial system if the Fed stopped printing massive amounts of money for stimulus and debt service?  Williams explains, “You could see financial implosion by preventing liquidity being put into the system.  The system needs liquidity (freshly created dollars) to function. Without that liquidity, you would see more of an economic implosion than you have already seen.  In fact, I will contend that the headline pandemic numbers have actually been a lot worse than they have been reporting.  It also means we are not recovering quite as quickly.  The Fed needs to keep the banking system afloat.  They want to keep the economy afloat.  All that requires a tremendous influx of liquidity in these difficult times.”

So, is the choice inflation or implosion?  Williams says, “That’s the choice, and I think we are going to have a combination of both of them.  I think we are eventually headed into a hyperinflationary economic collapse.  It’s not that we haven’t been in an economic collapse already, we are coming back some now. . . . The Fed has been creating money at a pace that has never been seen before.  You are basically up 75% (in money creation) year over year.  This is unprecedented.  Normally, it might be up 1% or 2% year over year.  The exploding money supply will lead to inflation.  I am not saying we are going to get to 75% inflation—yet, but you are getting up to the 4% or 5% range, and you are soon going to be seeing 10% range year over year. . . . The Fed has lost control of inflation.”

And remember, when the Fed has to admit the official inflation rate is 10%, John Williams says, “When they have to admit the inflation rate is 10%, my number is going to be up to around 15% or higher.  My number rides on top of their number.”

Right now, the Shadowstat.com inflation rate is above 11%.  That’s if it were calculated the way it was before 1980 when the government started using accounting gimmicks to make inflation look less than it really is.  The Shadowstats.com number cuts out all the accounting gimmicks and is the true inflation rate that most Americans are seeing right now, not the “official” 4.25% recently reported.

Williams says the best way to fight the inflation that is already here is to buy tangible assets.  Williams says, “Canned food is a tangible asset, and you can use it for barter if you have to. . . . Physical gold and silver is the best way to protect your buying power over time.”  Gold may be a bit expensive for most, but silver is still relatively cheap.  Williams says, “Everything is going to go up in price.”

When will the worst inflation be hitting America?  Williams predicts, “I am looking down the road, and in early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com.

 

17 Replies
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Shadowstats John Williams inflation or implosion

Actually, the more concerning matter will be if the concerted fiscal and monetary efforts can’t generate some sustained inflation.

I think that’s more likely.

This is like the “if the donkey’s tail is wet, it’s raining” barometer.

0 Kudos
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Shadowstats John Williams inflation or implosion

I don’t recall any complaints when the Fed went all in to inflate the stock market before the election.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Shadowstats John Williams inflation or implosion

I do think John’s assertions that actual unemployment was seriously understated is probably supported by real world evidence.

If the job market actually had that little slack we should have seen more upward pressure on wages.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Shadowstats John Williams inflation or implosion

I`m just your friendly internet economist, but it seems to me businesses had been able to keep their domestic wages low by farming out as much of the manufacturing process to Chinese slave labor.  Recently, that has become a issue in the supply chain,  of "how much can I sell my product for and how much wages can I afford?". 

In the 1980s inflation was started being figured differently, perhaps after 40years we need to change it again?  True in 1980 a big console tv was $900, now you can go to WallyWorld and buy a 70" flatscreen  for $400 "everyday" ...so no inflation!!!   Man does not live on flatscreen tv`s alone.   But you hook your cheap tv up to cable/satellite services and those bills are up, up, up and they weren`t bills you had in 1980. 

Argentina the former crown jewel of South America has 50% inflation, when there`s talk of the possibility or impossibility of hyper-inflation "here" is 50% in the cards?   I think we could see stagflation of 8% inflation and 15% unemployment.  

Gotta remember before all this other current fiscal talk they were talking of work week hours declining and universal income (Andrew Yang) might be required.

0 Kudos
rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: For one, the Fed is ....

For one, the Fed, at least some on the Board are already "talking about", "talking about" raising interest rates so that should start putting a damper on things a little.  As far as the choice between hyperinflation and implosion, there's a lot of room in between those two outcomes.  What is true is that business (& the stick market) has gotten too used to operating with low, low interest rates and they're going to have come to grips with it.  Current stock market valuations and the company earnings that they're based on depend on low interest rates.

  

0 Kudos
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: For one, the Fed is ....

The Fed has soaked up $351B in excess reserves via reverse repos in the last couple weeks.

They are tightening, which makes complete sense- they flooded the system with liquidity during a crisis which is now winding down.

 

 

0 Kudos
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: For one, the Fed is ....

The Fed went insane trying to get Former Guy re-elected.

Now they have some cleanup to do.

Soaked up 3 mos. of QE without changing public guidance at all.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: For one, the Fed is ....

"The Fed went insane trying to get Former Guy re-elected."    Not really, last year was ground zero for the ScamDemic and if anything Trump was criticized for not throwing more money at it.

0 Kudos
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: For one, the Fed is ....

Fed lit the stock market for the election via huge repos and then walking back policy and guidance.

That already overripe bubble splatted everything within miles when the virus hit, then they quadrupled down.

The money supply numbers that you all are shrieking about are mostly a product of those actions.

Funny how nuthin’s ever your fault.

Anyway, I’ve been trying to explain that those numbers don’t mean what you think. They just mean Risk On!, and buy everything!

 

 

0 Kudos