Excellent topic, We have had duscussions on the subject in Cattle Talk this summer.
"where are we" I think is THE question. Cow calf #s at 50+ yr lows. Part of teh equation, we produce far more beef per fed vs 10 let alone 30 yrs ago. Are we rebuliding the herd now or not yet, will the rebuild be similar to other cycles or slower.
Ibjective for the non-permanent cow/calf man is, having a full herd to sell when the industry is most bullish. I don't think we are anywhhere close to that.
It gets hard because as cow feeder prices rise, to levels never imagined, too easy to say here, take mine but that is the slider phase, where FEDS are takeon iff feed early to capture the high Px, onloy to see higher and higher,. Cows at 80 no 110 no 120, hard noy to sell. KEEP em. I bet feeder fututres hit 2-2.25. before this is over.
Yes signs beed demand is falling off some but mosty we are used to consuming is it a daily slaughter of ~150.
Idea here, now, buy a mix of yearling heifers (preferrably bread) and some from last spring's calf crop. Breed the yearlings, the yiounger ones next summer. Gradually you are in teh cow/calf business. Sell the steers, keep 50% of the heifers.
Try to stay bought ahead on hay for winter suppliment vs getting caught.
And in 2016, sell some cows, more in fall 2017. Let all the young you have at that point go summer 2017.
Others, ideas? Maybe pull those dates back a year.
Supply/demand is all, cattle have some fixed elements and we should be able to pull this off vs will 2014 be a gerat or terrible yr for beans.
Rgds
