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08-27-2013 10:08 PM
Absolutely, we are seeing green healthy corn turn brown in a matter of days. We had a good corn crop coming in South Dakota, but this extreme heat and continued dryness is going to take us down 10-20% in my estimation. The beans I'm afraid will take it even worse.
08-27-2013 11:39 PM
I've been flying my little airplane around every few days lately, mostly staying within 20-40 miles of Iowa City. It is remarkable the change one sees in the last two weeks. Of course it varies by soil type and I assume variety, but the striking corn deterioation can't be denied.
How much loss there is I have no idea. My location has 0.05" rain in August, about 3 1/2 inches short of normal. The grass is dormant. Beans are still looking pretty good but one can see the subtle changes in shading that foretlll something not good.
Last year, the deep water reserves saved the crop or reduced damage in the face of dire predictions. It's my feeling that we don't have the deep water this year - we got water to tile level but no full recharge below that.
Two days ago, I dug a post hole about 10 feet from a creek bed that still had a little water. At 42" the dirt was dry enought that it wouldn't always stay in the jabbers (for those of you who know what that kind of post hole digger is). I was powder dry the top 12 inches and too dry at 42" to compress in the hand.
For quite a while in late July and early August,. the temperaturs were not too stressful, but in the last week and in next week's forecast temps are in the 90's.
It doesn't look good. I predict my yieldsd will be less than last year.for both corn and beans. Last year I had about an 85% yield on corn and the second best bean crop I've ever had. I'm willing to be that this eyar I have 75% on corn and am not sure what to guess on beans.
08-28-2013 06:03 AM
Palouser, In my part of ncia, we are doing ok. we've had some nice rains in aug and the heat will help some late corn catch up(i have corn replanted june 23 that pollinated about 2 weeks ago. A foolish enterprise on my part).remember tho, the best we can do here is to maintain a mediocre corn crop. I sprayed quite a few fields for soybean aphids and have been encouraged by what I see. there are some fields that still might have a shot at 50, but will take one more rain. Maybe? I don't think you have to travel far to find worse conditions. got back last week from a trip to cincinati, at that time and from I-74 , Ithought illinois and indiana looked great, but their beans could use a drink. This heat probably hasn't helped. fwiw
08-28-2013 06:54 AM
08-28-2013 12:03 PM
Yes, not just hearing that but it is fact. Some corn is deteriorating. If you are new to corn, you might wish to know there is ~95 million acres planted in 2013. Late planting, and now dry in NIA and into MN have us at less than Trendyield in the composite. Which is why corn is 486 not 3.86.
Corn is grown in many states though the mid west dominates. The ECB is looking dynamite, many areas will have record yields. Stating one hears corn denigrating, refers to an area, noyt the composite crop, whaich is what we export, distill, feed and eat.
Wheat for feed was record ? in 12/13, 8$ corn drove that, an expectation is 13/14 will see a 100 m bu drop in wheat for feed. C and S rally has spiled into CBT SRW, but only up 27 cents, feeble. Bulls and bears hope for 50 more cents. May not happen. Supply/demand reality is slowly sinking in vs. the wild past 2 yrs- unsustainable. Demand grows slowly production responds to price and Egypt does a poor job buying as usual..
08-28-2013 06:16 PM
If you are nieve enough to believe the crop is NOT going down hill in aveey large area , sell some next Jan futures. Let us know what bridge your address will be
08-29-2013 09:48 AM
Correct me if I am wrong but WASDE shows an increase expected in ES / use world basis?
Some of that +20 may be disappearing.
Most of the problem areas have been modeled in.