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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Since I was deleted

Let's try again...one of the candidates is likely to destroy trade by trying to renege on our existing trade agreements (so that American can be great again at exploiting others I guess)...ag is a huge exporter...that places ag in a very vulnerable position.

Something that should be considered for those of us in the ag industry.

As you think about your marketing plan for the 2016 crop, it is an important data point to include. If it looks like he might win, protecting the downside might be far more important than currently believed

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16 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Since I was deleted

The other side of the coin is..........if trade is actually more balanced, MORE grain will need to be exported to make up the difference.  It might actually be more of a win for agriculture in the long run.  The truth is.......nobody knows for sure.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Since I was deleted

Time, US exports $26 billion in ag products to China. The US trade imbalance with China is a $365 billion deficit....now you tell me who is the tail and who is the dog? Seems to me China better get on the stick and buy MORE if they want the appearance of fair trade, all it takes is someone in power to admit the problem.
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Since I was deleted

One of the ways the current problem is expressed........

 

Whether you are trying to post a graph of the corn and bean spreads this year, or the graph of the basis wreck to show to add to this thread

There is only one way to express the frustration and future potential for ag.

 

And it is similar to my hope for US Leadership after the election or my embarassment of the last few years of leadership 

It all looks like this.......

 

 

 

 

 tumblr_nzlu6wzQBw1v00mydo1_500.gif
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Since I was deleted

Now Time ,,,,,, it is time to explain to me how I was able to get that posted and can't get a simple graph posted like I have done many times....

 

The basis erosion is telling.....

I usually have to be careful not to get caught with grain in storage after July because my end users are getting filled and waiting for new crop.  Then my extra grain seeks to find late season holes to fill....

This is the end of april,,,,,,, May fools day........  Our ethanol plant is not posting any more basis bids before September.......  Then we begin new crop basis bids 35 cents under last years beginning basis....

Feedlots not looking for much grain before new crop.... Might be an eroding basis for the next several months.......

 

I repeat it is may fools day............ 

 

Wheat gets cut in 6 weeks.....................

 

Time I am agreeing with you............................ Maybe just to have a place to go with the grain..........even a basis contract has a chance to not get burned in the pre harvest office fire....

 

Does this not sound a little like our area in 1930 and 1931/2 following the 1929 bust and   before the major drought hit...... When folks were delivering grain to elevators to pile it just over there beside last years grain pile....    

true story....... there was a neighbor about 5 miles away (and 15 years ahead of me) who owned several quarters scattered over Sw Ks all rented out except for the one they lived on to crop and garden...who took her share of the grain delivered by each farmer and piled it on the ground at her home ......beginning in 1932..... fed her chickens and milk cow from the piles and  shoveled some into wooden graineries.  Then hired kids to build and scoop more as she bought another wood grainery... never sold anything but eggs and milk when she went to town.  Sold the stinking mess of grain in 1943..... every bushel... and bought more land.........legendary

 

Now Ray or whomever else can remember my doubt about the predicted record crops the last three years....... this might not be due to abundant production....... This may be happening because the US and world economies may be coming in for a pit stop while our leadership has it's head in the environment...

-------------------------------

by the way.

 

Anybody noticing the big declines in wheat acres , not just here bit around the world,,,, even Morocco...  presently ... Following the biggest drought in US wheat country on record.....Yet prices have remained dormant since 2010 when Russia had the surprise....suprise news in August of that year..... Since "We don't need no stinking wheat"............. a quote from a friend with no answers cause it is all about her.... and her fears of children with gluten paralysis....  

 

And the big question ..... "How much more weight will my car gain if I use 10% more corn ethanol"........  Chevy obesity...........think about it.......corn,  and the michellin man.,  that pilsbury guy.  

Since the health trends are set by presidents wives...... What will trump bring us.....  starvation...

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Since I was deleted

Well Time I had a post written out within fifteen minutes of your initial post an  when I tried to post, it went into oblivion. They had  moved it to the cesspool and my post was not retrievable. 

 

It wet something like his...

 

Do you really think there is a degree of hope for any self employed small businessman with either choice we seem to be gonna get? 

 

4 more years of Obama's policies will bankrupt us in health-care alone. Not a single one of the two choices we will have is anything but an unmitigated financial disaster. Greece, Venezuela, Argentina, and now Brazil will look good compaired to our future under further socialism. The current majority wants everything free, after all it's their right.

 

Theft by ballot.  

 

.we will just be Puerto Rico north.

 

This is nothing more than a choice of do you want to be castrated going from the left to the right, or from the right going to the left?

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Since I was deleted

Well SW you are too late for around here...........new crop wheat is now 85 cents under.....another elevator is 1.00 under !!!

 

is there any #$%@ use to even cut it ???

 

and they want me to dump in another 10 to 24 bucks an acre for fungicide ??

 

and i'm closer to KC than you are !!!

 

and i have a wheat gluten plant about 60 to 70 miles away   (((opps i used the "g" word)))

 

i haven't had time to call down there to see what they are bidding.

 

it's rained and can't get in the field......then have had to put on the white coat...we had to make a trip to the ER......to a different hospital than we ususally good......might have been a "good" thing......i got the copies of everything and i now have

a skylight in the house.

 

i've been on the phone most of the day getting appointments made.....we were told to talk to our gp the next day after the visit

that included ecg, labs, ct, and other...when to gp next day, and said to start to take an asprin per day.  Well i now know why

the dr at the er said to talk to our dr......several things found on ct.........goiter.....spots on the lung, and also an aneurysm !!!!

alll that in the report.....and you to go home and take an asprin............

 

 

then an area regional hospital got into with the area orthopedic doctors group......as of sunday.....they will no longer go to the ER and

no longer do surgery there !!!!!!!

 

so now what the $%@! are you supposed to do ? 

 

all boils down to money....and power....the area regional hospital is "taking over" everything, under the auspice of "we have to get everyone into

one group and get big in order to make money in the new healthcare system"................

 

"" BOVINE BOWEL MOVEMENT ""

 

the problem started when they are trying to start a "truma center".....which is good.....but you need to have a number of specialities on short call.

 

ortho is one of the needed specialities.....well the group wanted to have a little be "on call 24 hours a day and provide 24 hour coverage".........

 

which could be somewhat understood......the hospital refused to pay one dime..........

 

so now all of us suffer.

 

the smart #$%! that decided that, needs to be called at 3:30 am by the ER, and say that someone needs ortho surgery right now, and

ask what are we supposed to do ????....you come in and explain to them why they may loose their function of limb..becasue of you.

 

dont give me "its money" story..........maybe if we didn't pay you so much and spend money on stupid things...and sponsoring a golf outing......

 

maybe we could get back to "practicing medicine"........not "counting money".

 

ok..........i'll shut up now

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: Since I was deleted

I won't bother to go into the numerous reasons why I won't be voting for Trump in either the primary or general.

 

But I have commented frequently about the curious case of people in agriculture supporting his trade policies since agriculture/agribusiness has been the #1 lobby for trade deals.

 

NAFTA probably didn't cost that many net US jobs but it certainly shifted a lot around. But the fact that it permitted US corn and sweetener dumping into Mexico certainly has been a factor in the immigration problem. And it was classic dumping- protected by the trilateral agreement. And we've violated WTO fairly regularly on ag matters so not too different than Trump's assertions that he'll act unilaterally (are we done paying reparations to Brazil after losing the WTO case on cotton?)

 

China's admission to WTO certainly has cost a lot of US jobs- you can't introduce half a billion workers into the world economy without a lot of dislocation. But its been a big growth market for soybeans and some livestock and poultry products. Still I don't lay awake at night worrying that we might lose a bit of grain demand if hog and poultry corporations and the plants that primary emply immigrants might lose some export markets.

 

And as far as our unilateral agricultural policies, the ethanol overshoot has some blame for the state of the mideast, which may not bother you if you turn off the TV but just might, yet.

 

So, I guess I see it all as a little piece of the whole neocon/neolib mess. A bunch of interest groups writing policies and passing them to their captive officials to sign, without any adults in the room.

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Slim123
Senior Contributor

Re: Since I was deleted

I think everyone on this site is smart enough to make their  own decisions on who to vote for. 

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bkadds
Advisor

Re: Since I was deleted

SW--is your basis really eroding? I generally do not keep any into July either except in short crop years where it has paid handsomely. By the way, very little planted here. Near freezing last night probably was not beneficial for the wheat either.
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