cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Since I was deleted

So, I guess I see it all as a little piece of the whole neocon/neolib mess. A bunch of interest groups writing policies and passing them to their captive officials to sign, without any adults in the room.

 

that covers it........  --- 1970 thru yesterday, so what should we expect---

 

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Since I was deleted

Bkadds, 

 

Eroding -- is a quote from a feedlot buyer at Guymon.

And I think he might be right.  We began last falls crop bidding with a 40 cent basis to the ethanol plant at Liberal.  The New crop today stands at +10 for new and not much hope of rising...  

 

------

We normally see a rising basis from november into may... the premium that pays for storage.. Basis has declined January to may.. from 50+ to 17+.... and probably lower by now... direct to feedlot...

We are the enduser region... We should be running on "imported" grain by May or June..

A grain deficit area.... empty or close for the wheat crop coming.

 

The futures market has stopped falling.  Basis to the end users has fallen as well and some expect it to get worse in this area...

 

"Basis erosion has given elevators very little chance to make their margin this year"  was the quote, and he felt it might continue into the new crop year..   Was the answer when I asked why a local elevator might be showing more red ink than the last few years of crop failures.

 

I personally think basis improvement should follow futures improvement but I don't see it so far.

----------------

 

Planting...... we are usually half planted by May but now at 10% and lucky to be that far.... good rains for us and just got volunteer growing this last week..... yes cold and not much weed growth..

For a year when we had 70+ degrees in February... everything is starting slow 

Liberal area avoided the big nasty storms in the Guymon/Elkhart style.  We are around 3.5 inches overall and going to need all the growing season we can get with such a slow start.

 

 

 

0 Kudos
giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Since I was deleted

Sw,

 

you are up too early,,what are you doing up? 

0 Kudos
Silverwheaton
Senior Contributor

Re: Since I was deleted

That is a funny joke now, I will admit!

0 Kudos
OKdon
Senior Contributor

Re: Since I was deleted

What makes you think that China will buy more than it needs? They are buying what they want from whom they want. I think they are quite content with the current arrangement. In fact we must be content as well because many years have passed while china picks our pocket.

 

Perhaps they will understand tariffs on incoming merchandise.

0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Since I was deleted

Don, I'm sure China is content with the arrangement as are the corporation's. But the popularity of Trump and Sanders proves that not everyone on this side is "content" If people here are content, why the hub-bub about raising the minimum wage to 15 bucks?
0 Kudos
bkadds
Advisor

Re: Since I was deleted

SW--plus .18 fob old crop here and plus .11 for new fob. This is the worst I have seen it in quite some time. Odd year to say the least. You locking in basis on unsold bushels or waiting it out? Tough call.
0 Kudos