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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Slick Willie says......

PAl Cellulosic is not gonaa happen!  I drive by Emmetsburg Iowas plant all the time. I know guys who are trying to deliver corn stover bales there and they just can't make it work. And it won't!

I said over on the Farm business side it is time to let it ride. I do not see this ending well. IF we stopped production of ethol tomorrow the problem is that we have used the grain!  It is already in the fuel. I truly believe we have a short crop this year It is only going to be a matter of degrees. THe market can not react fast enough with Gov.intervention at this time. Take your highs of 08 and factor them against the devalue in the dollar and see what those numbers are. SCARRY!  With a 160 corn yield why won't we take out those highs? 

 

Everybody talks about the rationing of corn that the market is supposed to do. How can it ration against a mandate?  The only way is to take out livestock. Other countries are finding they must buy food. and they can starve other parts of thier country to get it.  We will do the same only we will starve out the livestock industry.

 

What USDA's outlook did was solidify in every bodies mind the real crap shoot that is ahead of us.  Nobody believes we can get this kinda yiels. Is  it possible?  Of course. Probable? NO!  So in the next 9 months what loses?  Livestock. That means we have 4-5 years of insanly high livestock prices ahead.  No one in Gov. is gonna let that happen.  

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Slick Willie says......

Jr, the issue is breaking the lignin bonds. If, when, that technology is perfected, Iowa won't be the center of ethnanol production. Out west we have all the infrastructure in place to capitalize on it when the needed processing of the cellulose occurs.

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: Slick Willie says......

I think that as genetics improve, corn production will move into more arrid regions.

 

  In fact if corn is such a valuable commodity that the third worlds is driven to food riots. Then it is too darn precious to consume as livestock feed as well. Grind it up as a cerial grain and feed the masses world wide.

 

I might get a little tired of corn fritters but my conscience demands that I quit feeding it to animals.

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dapper7
Senior Contributor

Re: Slick Willie says......

cellulosic ethanol will never happen. the logistics of moving that kind of volume to a 24/7 plant are staggering. break all the lignin bonds you want, but the sheer quantity of material to be handled is the question. no way i am selling cornstalk bales off my farm. and bean stubble?forget it.  organic matter is too easily lost here. i have taken the om from sub 3to 4% to 5 and 6%. and what happens after all that volume is distilled, is it cattle feed like ddgs or something that is spread back out on the field? many questions unanswered.

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: Slick Willie says......

I agree that cellulosic ethanol is nothing more than a pipe dream.  From what I gather, industry experts hope to obtain 100 gallon of ethanol per ton of dry matter.  How much dry matter can one obtain?  I've even heard people proclaim we'll use CRP land to remove the dry forage.  I can't speak for all areas, but here this would net less than one ton per acre.  Once transportation is taken into account, it makes it look even worse.  Anyone who's ever hauled wheat straw would know that it's pretty tough to get more than 13-15 ton on a flatbed trailer.  One semi load would yield between 1300 and 1500 gallons of ethanol.  With corn, you're getting nearly double this amount per semi load.  Transportation cost would be double.  Anyone who has ever chopped silage from the same field year after year will tell you that it takes signficantly more fertilizer to raise a crop there.  There seems to be a lot of money being thrown at something that just doesn't seem like it will ever result anything.  There's a reason several have adopted no-till rather than simply plowing like we did decades ago.

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