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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Slow Farmer Selling

What does 'slow farmer selling' tell us? For the last couple of weeks, my grain buyer has been saying there has been slow farmer selling, and what was coming in was mostly farm storage overflow. When do analysts report "slow farmer selling"? Is it to explain a price that doesn't seem to have a different explanation? If there were big exports, weather, politics, war or whatever we'd see those as the explanation. Is "slow farmer selling" something to say when there is no other explanation for why the basis is stronger than expected? Does slow farmer selling imply lack of good fundamental or even technical reasons for prices? In other words, if farmers sold more in a flat market is that good enough reason to believe the market psychology is down - that there is no strength under it? Analysts say a lot of things where there is nothing to say - it seems they need to fill up space and can't stand silence. Is "slow farmer selling" saying something because there is nothing else to say or does it mean there is no reason for the price to be as high as it is? If the latter is the case, then at some time, other farmers would sell believing things would go down hill and they'd want to sell before prices went lower.
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9 Replies
WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: Slow Farmer Selling

Probably just me, but I don't think 'slow farmer selling' tells us much, other than someone filling up comment space, and perhaps that the buyers would like us to be selling more at these prices.  This time of year, some selling slowness is logical as a post-harvest break from handling grain, getting some other things done, which maybe then gives prices a post-harvest boost, or some basis improvement.

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OKdon
Senior Contributor

Re: Slow Farmer Selling

My corn is all sold. Farmer resistance to this market is forcing those in dire need of corn to improve basis. Those that have enough supply to keep their operations going are in no hurry to push their bids. I think potential gains are limited and I really hope I am wrong. I will have another crop in 2016 and if there is price improvement I will benefit from it.

 

 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Slow Farmer Selling

Just have to laugh here.........there is no one who is "in dire need " of corn.     Come back and talk to us when corn reaches $5 and beyond on the CBOT.   Smiley Wink 

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WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: Slow Farmer Selling

It also seems that whether the price is $2 or $8, or anywhere in between, there will always be someone saying it should be sold.

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OKdon
Senior Contributor

Re: Slow Farmer Selling

I'm not saying it should be sold. Merely telling you what i did. As far as I'm concerned you can store your corn to 2026 if you want. Please stop trying to question someone else's motivations. I really don't care when you or anyone else markets their grain. 

 

Psst Ray, You want to send me a commission if I persuade these yahoos to sell?

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OKdon
Senior Contributor

Re: Slow Farmer Selling

Dire need of corn is evident by improved basis in some areas. Evidently, the sellers in your area are alot smarter than me.  The spec markets aren't setting the price of corn. Willing buyers and willing sellers set the cash grain markets. The only thing that basis does is explain the relationship between cash bids and the futures market. 

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WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: Slow Farmer Selling

Don, I wasn't talking about you and not even directly replying to your post, are you paranoid or something?  Notice I didn't say what I did or didn't do with any of my grain, and I really don't care what you do with any of yours either.

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hwr247
Senior Contributor

Re: Slow Farmer Selling

Slow farmer selling means the price for the commodities arent worth a crap! Lets tell it like it is! 

Im afraid they wont change much either......unless we do like all the other countries and devalue our currency! 

 

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gurly3801539
Advisor

Re: Slow Farmer Selling

Another one I've been hearing of late is " watching the end of harvest."  What does that mean?

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