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Honored Advisor

Small crops get smaller

With the upcoming USDA report, many expect the total production numbers to come down.....by a little. 

We may have seen the highest production numbers that we will see for 2019’s corn and soybeans.

As the saying goes, big crops get bigger.

I would expect that a small crop gets smaller. Especially if we can’t finish these late crops with good weather.

What are your thoughts?

5 Replies
Advisor

Re: Small crops get smaller


@roarintiger1 wrote:

With the upcoming USDA report, many expect the total production numbers to come down.....by a little. 

We may have seen the highest production numbers that we will see for 2019’s corn and soybeans.

As the saying goes, big crops get bigger.

I would expect that a small crop gets smaller. Especially if we can’t finish these late crops with good weather.

What are your thoughts?


I totally Agree. 

There's only 70 million acres of decent corn. 

And I figure beans are a total Wreck. 

Say Maybe a 2.5 billion bu. bean crop. 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Small crops get smaller

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Contributor

Re: Small crops get smaller

We'll know a little more on monday but here are my impressions of a drive across the ECB- the limitations of windshield surveying noted-

less PP than I'd expected. Probably more beans in the crop mix than normal and a whole lot of small beans.

Slow vegetative growth on those isn't helping any but Sep and frost will tell the tale there. There's a scenario where enough acres and OK yield from the late beans leave that market unexcited.

In that scenario, giving an incentive to plant something via the supplemental payment will have been counterproductive.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Small crops get smaller

Wheat crop may get bigger

Saw harvest at maybe 50 % in southern panhandle of Nebraska yesterday(3+weeks late) looked good.

Saw harvest in southern Montana at maybe 33% and they were making a huge ground pile 30 miles east of billings along the interstate.

No elevator within sight just one huge pile that could only get much bigger with acres left to cut.

Corn has competition...

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Honored Advisor

Re: Small crops get smaller

Corn may have competition......in the western states. But in the eastern corn belt, a +.70 basis on old corn and a +.35 basis on new corn says otherwise.

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