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Honored Advisor

Smoke and Mirrors -----Corn market.--- revised

Well as usual it worked for a day.  We took @ 20% reduction in carry out in one month and pushed the futures market down 8-9 cents.

 

usda raised its arm, pointed out there and said look at that world market.  And we took all day trying to see what wasn't there.

 

Oh, wait, one thing i did see in the foreign corn market --- Ukraine has new uniforms for its young farm workers.

 

 

And lets see ----- a little subtraction says we are 420million bushels higher than carry was at the end of 2012 when we were barging it up the Mississippi to get by.   

With a 719M bu carry out in 2012, we were having trouble sourcing corn ---- rumor was two stupid farmers in eastern iowa were holding it in provate grain bins --- prices were 6.90 - $7 (usda assumption from the sd report august 2012) plus basis bonus.

 

Flash forward to April 2014----- two crops have been raised (near record crops---14 billion range) and our carry out has raised 420 million bushels on a budget that uses 13+ billion per year.  That is 11 days of usage if we worked every day----- so that is 8 working days of supply.  How will we ever get over a mountain of supply like that?? ----- 

 

 

 

 

3 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Smoke and Mirrors -----Corn market.--- revised

Finally a calculator that makes sense. Thanks SW.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Smoke and Mirrors -----Corn market.--- revised

don't let the Fri selloff  fool - just looks like the end of correction to get the rest of the (corn's topped out) believers to "sell, sell, Mortimer!"

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Honored Advisor

Re: Smoke and Mirrors -----Corn market.--- revised

They claim that China will import less corn........alrighty then............Smiley Wink

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