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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

So, How Are You Marketing This Bumper Crop?

Some are saying the crop is in the bin.  Others are saying it's all smoke and mirrors.  We know where everyone's mouh is, where is their money?

 

If you sold a large portion of new crop already, are you happy with the price?  What are you going to do if you are not happy with the price?

 

If you have not sold much new crop yet, when are you going to sell it?  Are you waiting for higher prices?  What prices are you waiting for?  What will bring them?  When will you see them?  

 

I sold a lot of my beans too early and am not happy with the price.  I'll make money but not nearly as much as I could have.  I have some more offers on the books but they may be too high to get touched.  Should I start selling down now?  Not too sure.

 

I sold a lot of my corn and am pretty happy with the prices in general.  I have some offers in for new crop cash corn but may have to revise them down to move them.  Go ahead and sell lower now, or wait and hope for better prices but worry they may not get this good again?

 

Some of it may be personal predisposition.  I tend to sell too early.  It may be easy now to sell too late.  

 

How are you doing?  Pretty well sold up?  Waiting?  What targets are in your sights if you haven't sold yet?

 

 

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8 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: So, How Are You Marketing This Bumper Crop?

Deer in the headlights comes to mind.
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hardnox
Advisor

Re: So, How Are You Marketing This Bumper Crop?

I'm 100% priced or floored above current levels.

 

I said I'd roll puts down if the last down move pushed to some lower objectives, it didn't.

 

Said I'd make additional cash sales if the bounce hit some upside objectives. It didn't.

 

Stuck in the middle but worse places to be stuck.

 

If the calendar gets past about 8/10 I probably won't do anything additionally- if it happens to be rallying at that point it probably is good, and if we're at new lows it is quite likely we'll make lower ones before harvest is over.

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: So, How Are You Marketing This Bumper Crop?

BTW, don't think the crop is made yet- corn 90% but beans have a way to go and if they go bad they'll pull corn some.

 

But a 175/49 isn't out of the question and I'll guess that would mean that nearby corn trades with a 2, beans with a 9, maybe 8.*

 

I know that the last decade instilled a lot of sales fear in people but it goes the other way too, sometimes-or an average cost producer (implied rent, depreciation included) the difference between a loss on the year and $100-150/acre profit.**

 

If anybody can't keep up the payments on the West Palm Beach condo with those kind of profits it isn't my problem.

 

Almost worst case I see in my current position is that yields disappoint a bit, prices hold here or modestly higher and that it all comes to naught. That happens too.

 

*also means that profits are going to be harder to come by for at least a year, maybe several. Costs won;t adjust to that quickly.

 

**that assumes average yields. If nat'l yield comes in that high then some folks are going to be doing 220/60, in which case they'll be OK despite it all. Still a lot of money left on the table.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: So, How Are You Marketing This Bumper Crop?

Patiently waiting for the harvest lows in October.......collecting an insurance check because of those October lows.  Then, when the bins actually aren't quite as full as everyone thinks they will be,  I will be selling the corn next spring after the size of this massive crop has shrunk.  

 

Sorry, it's the best that I've got.   Smiley Wink

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: So, How Are You Marketing This Bumper Crop?

i for one, am getting rather tired of this idea of marketing.......it is, in my opinion, becomming impossible.

i look out my window and see one thing...yet i listen to the media, i'm told the other...this year, supposed to be a huge

wheat crop....amazing, visiting with several area elevator operators that cover quite a few miles...let's see, on covers

10 counties, the other is a terminal elevator....this was an "average" crop.......reason everyone is going nuts is, for

the last few years the crop size has been down.

as far as the markets....as i have been preaching....they are no longer markets....i point to you the recent hearings about

such a subject about electronic tradeing, and how much is "program based trading", as one of those being questioned,

how much of this market is made up of the program trading....his answer was significant....

so, how do you "market" when the "market" is not really a "market"  ((go look up in you various dictionarys to see what a

market is)).......i was alway told in school and college, and at meetings.....it's where buyers and sellers meet to arrive at

a price......today, it is nothing but a "play thing"

i am frankly amazed that none of the farm organizations or commodity groups have weighed in on this, or at the

hearings....it is something that has a direct impact in their members......but......where are they ?

anymore, i don't see how you can market.....you must manage the the basis risk......which this year in wheat is totally

out of wack....please please don't give me the song and dance routine about movement etc...etc....unable to get

rid of....i see semi's going in all directions....i also see unit trains being loaded out.....it is pure profit taking by the

elevators.....

then trying to get into the market.....which should be driven by supply and demand, condtion rating, etc.......which was

how i  was trained to figure out markets....you must throw that out the window....the day it should go up it goes down

etc......

lastly...the cost to do marketing anymore is crazy....for years we pushed options.....it was "safe" to do so, banks liked

the "limited liability" of a set cost........today it seems the premiums for wheat is is out of reason from what i've

seen......so even if you want to "hedge in".....there is extream cost....and you may not be money ahead by hedging

at times.

 

the question is.....how are we getting such huge crops all the time, when more and more land is put out of production every day,

the weather is more and more fickle (as we are told)......yet the crop size continues to grow larger every day......

but who says the crop is bigger ?

 

some are pointing to "piles of grain on the ground".......here is what is happening locally.....the elevators are CHOOSING to put grain on the

ground...it goes against my ideas....but their idea is that it is faster....and the cost to build a bunker is much cheaper than a concreate structure

thus, everyone (including the eyes in the sky).....see these massive piles......maybe not such much additional production, but a different way to

operate.

 

i'm sorry, but i'm getting to a point that i don't understand it anymore....and frankly, if people would be more honest, they would admit the same.

 

we have been taken down to the point that we fight amoung each other to get an extra dime per bushel.....think about that, one thin dime per bushel....

what have we become.....puppets on a string......working our guts out with a little carrot dangling over our heads.

 

and our wonderful farm groups that were developed to look after our backsides, so to speak.....have, as the song goes "left for the coast".....

 

the answer.....i frankly don't know anymore.........and that's not a good feeling

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: So, How Are You Marketing This Bumper Crop?

Sliding as much as possible into the future.
Only way I can figure to make a "pile".


🙂
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: So, How Are You Marketing This Bumper Crop?

I have never figured out how to feel good about sales at a price just because the current price is lower.
Eventually you have to take the lower one too.
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hwr247
Senior Contributor

Re: So, How Are You Marketing This Bumper Crop?

one of the few years i havent sold anything!  im glad i havent cause the weather this year is terrible here! way too much water the past two weeks plus disease is setting in even with fungicde apllied.terrible storms with 50-70 mph winds!

jim meade has balls or he knows how to market and protect himself from a disaster!

i have sold a third of my production in the past but when prices have fallen this far even that wouldnt have helped make things work but would have helped!

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