Not quite there yet!
However, starting to get the feeling the "good" areas of the U.S., are really going to have to come through to make up for hard hit area's.
Would these be the biggest numbers of the year from usda?
I'm with you, on beans for sure, maybe not so much on the corn yet. It depends on the rain. If it shuts off over the course of July, our crop will drop bushels fast. The roots are very shallow across the entire Midwest. It won't take long for plants to start to get short when they need a quarter inch a day or more for the big production figures.
I have no idea on actual numbers on the crop size. What I do know is that corn and soybeans are way too cheap for what is going on in the real world. Especially soybeans. We are going to be talking about rationing the bean supply again and the only way to do that is with much higher prices. The demand is simply too high for the production. USDA's carryover predictions over the winter and this spring, keeping the lid on prices, was a huge mistake. I'm thinking we could add a significant amount to the price of beans.
Of course, a 12.2 billion bushel corn crop also does not keep up with demand. End users have made a ton of money over the last three years with lower prices. They should also be getting ready to pay up for their supply.
I'm not quite to the point of doing away with all gov.reports. Though flawed, and we can argue all day weather they are unbiased, they are all we have. But yesterday sure showed how little value the March report has.
Truth be known, we couldn't guess with any accuracy what the final number will be at this point. We continue to bash the Gov for throwing out numbers no one wants to believe, why do we continue to throw out numbers of our own? Nothing against anyone here, but it seems like the pot calling the kettle black to me.
Great comment Shag...the pot and kettle are both black.
If MT spouts profusely the same number year after year, sooner or later he will be right and he will require us all to pay homage. Pretty close to the definition of insanity except that once every 6 to 12 years he will be right.
Weather forecast for our water logged area is fantastic for the next week. Lots of beans will go in tomorrow and Friday/Saturday. Wheat will come out and double crops will go in into pretty good conditions for dc (ie plenty of water to germ).
I can't get to a 12.2 without a seriuos drought in the western belt, it is way to good for July 1 to fail that badly. As ECIN will tell you, and all the data supports, it is too early to throw in the towel on IN/OH corn production. So, if we exclude MO and just make it a zero, it is still virtually impossible to get to 12.2. Beans will go the way of August weather like they always do. Way to early to even guess, could be 2.8 bil, could be 3.8 bil.