Morning everybody - I agree with Time - Is WAY to early to throw in the towel here - it all depends on a 2 letter word as to what happens - ( anyway in my part or the world ) that word ?? IF - Our soils are really water logged ! and IF the forecast holds = dry threw weekend - It would give the corn a chance to get the roots going again - No it will not be like the last 2 years here - with 220 plus yields - could be still good corn -
Time : Kingcorn was here yesterday evening to check the N - Plot - -- As we walked the plot - he looked down and said look at this - see that white area ? It was just about a inch or so from the stalk - it was little white roots growing to the top of the dirt - trying to get out of the wet soil - also might what to keep an eye out for Northern - He found one stalk with it on it .
Also of interest - My B-I-L called yesterday - he has one field yet to be sprayed - I told him they will have to use drop's on it - He said his co-op had called Agro- Chem and they said they had 60,000 - yes 60,000 drop's on back order - so - that tells me that there is a lot of corn yet to be sprayed .
This crop will come down to management - how much money to you throw at it ? OR will they op out and just let crop insurance cover it .
The fields are trying to recover here in NW Ohio. I personally can not wait for the corn to get tall enough so I can't see across the field any more. I'm sick of looking at those yellow spots. On the bright side, if you have a field that you don't have mapped for the tile, you can easily find them at the moment. Yesterday was the first day in a long time that it did not rain. That is encouraging. There will be some fields with money yet spent on them and other fields that will not see one more dime. I feel that most will be in that second category.
Very good points by both of you. I have always said I don't get too fired up about looking at fields and trying to put a number on yield until after pollination. There just isn't much point. Obviously if your crop is completely drowned out of fried by the 1st of June you pretty much know what you have. Other than that a lot can happen between July 1st and harvest. A lot of damage has been done in some areas and much of that is irreversible. Really good weather the rest of the summer would stop the bleeding and maybe do some healing too. There are also a lot of high producing areas that have not been hurt. We all need to remember that. I have not idea where we go from here crop or price wise. A sub 13 billion corn crop seems like a good bet and if demand remains steady that should be pretty supportive to price. Not sure it is $5 supportive but supportive nonetheless.
MT does what he does and he is what he is. The man has definitely been kicked in the privates this year. That area down there is just plain awful. With that said it doesn't seem to matter what his local conditions are he is always forecasting a much smaller crop than the government. He has an overwhelming need to be right or to be a hero. He has been on a hard run of luck since 2012 and is looking to redeem himself. What is the old saying? Even a broken clock is right twice a day? Or something like that. Who knows maybe we end up at his 12.2 or worse but it is much too early to try to lock in a crop at that number. Good day gentlemen.
Steve, Can I ask how you would rate the crops in your area at the moment.....say compared to a "normal" year? In my area, I would say that every field has some level of damage and yield loss. Some of those fields could heal up and still yield 90% or so from the top levels. But most sadly will never recover.......and only go about 50% with perfect weather from here on out. I would put the ratings here at 0%-excellent, 45% good, 35% fair. 10% poor, 10% very poor.
I guess it depends on your definition of normal! The past two years we have had a lot of 230 to 280 bushel corn. Is that normal? No. APH's running 195 to 210. Right now we are hanging on okay. There are a lot of fields with pond holes and some without. For the most part corn is holding it's color very well. Beans are struggling. At this time for corn I would rate us 10% excellent 50% good 35% fair, 5% poor, and 0% very poor. It is all very subjective at this point. Still too early to draw woo many conclusions on yield potential on a lot of the crop. We will be nowhere near as good as the last two years but still have the potential to hit APH's with the right weather. Ask me in two months!