cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

So how bad could it get

Had an interesting conversation with a grain buyer today. I will keep my comments brief as it was a hour conversation and mainly focused on beans. Also keep in mind I am in a basis friendly area, new crop beans are near $10 if you can get there now and corn was near $4 not too long ago. Needless to say this area ran outta beans a few months ago and is very short corn too.

A few things floated to the top. First I asked point blank if beans were going to 6. If you look at the monthly you can see a nasty neckline at 8 that sends up to 6 which in turn puts in a long term bottom and potential flip to an inverted H/S that's sends us off again.

The short answer was this. Lots of downside risk left, maybe 7 and didn't discount 6, board is completely decoupled from reality of local demand thus basis will do the lifting, SA acres are up and NA will likely be up too, who cares if carryout number shrinks, or if we come in at 44 vs 47, it was going to take something drastic to shake this thing up, was hard to be bullish the board even though locally demand is good.

We talked corn briefly and both basically agreed. Not many acres will be corn at 800 gas and $3 corn in low APH acres

So my question to you all is how bad does it get. And I am mainly thinking out to 15 crop. I am pretty well set on 14 crop at this juncture.

Finally got deep enough into corn to start to get a feel for how it's going to turn out. It's good but there are holes. Monitor sees some pretty wild swings. I know we haven't shelled our best field yet, and probably not our worst yet either. Good news is it's drier than we thought. 16-18 so far. Usually running 18-22 so that was nice. I would post some pics but trying to do that on this site with a smartphone is impossible

Beans are a week out yet. Be curious to see there. Hearing some pretty nasty stories of SDS fields coming out already

Everyone have a safe harvest

22 Replies
425Cat
Advisor

Re: So how bad could it get

Was he trying to get you to part with your beans. What time frame was he talking 7 beans.
0 Kudos
vrbuck
Advisor

ahhhhh mt

Your late on the technical new.......Buck has been informing the masses of a 6 prind for a month.   Buck has talked about an 8 print since july. Too many people talkin about extra tall corn peaks to listen about them beans.  Guess now we can talk about bean peaks.

IF the 6.50 peaks of beans where equal to the peaks of corn at a 2.4 ratio the peaks of corn (get it peak corn-ooops i let the joke out)Corn will set a low at 2.70.

 

mmmmmmmm   mmmmmmmmmm my tummy is grumblin.   buck could use a steak.  Do you know where to get one.

0 Kudos
425Cat
Advisor

Re: So how bad could it get

A little advice to you buck from an old friend. You made some money, you made some good calls. Enjoy it with thankfulness and humility. Sooner or later life will slap you into a new reality , sometimes not so fun.
0 Kudos
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: ahhhhh mt

Buck, I will keep this reply simple and civilized.

 

1.  For those that chose to read my comments instead of judge, I sold soya back in May and it appears to have been a very timely.  So I guess I out horsed you on that deal.  So unless you can show me something from back in April or May where you said sell soya, I believe I called that one much better than you.  I have been very concerned about soya because of acres both in NA this year and SA now, but also next year.

 

2.  Just because I dont spend all day everyday pouring over charts and speak the technical side regularly, doesn't mean they are not in my vocabulary.  I will be the first to admit I am far from experienced compared to those that make a living at it, but I do know my way around a chart.  Technicals and charts have a time and a place, and that place is when grain supplies finally start to build or are built.  IE for a period of decades because supply more than outpaced demand.  The last several years have been driven by fundamentals and the technical boyz tried to keep up.  I would caution you that corn is in the technical camp right now, but could flip to fundamental very quickly with uncharted water.  Beans are likely mired in the technicals until a major shake down.  Thus my position on being concerned about beans since early spring and not so much on corn.  I challange anyone to show me a chart from late 2010 that showed corn would be $8 plus, heck even a 2011 chart.  Mother nature always has a say.  We are IMO in a very violent time for volatility and you must prepare for the valleys and position for the peaks in this market.

 

3.  Have to wait till Jan on your steak

0 Kudos
vrbuck
Advisor

Re: ahhhhh mt

i did say april, i did say sell, and you know it.  I would back up my sell in april rant but it was over in agtalk and I have been booted from there.  As far as the judge part,  thow shall not judge lest you be judged yourself.

0 Kudos
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: So how bad could it get

Cat,

 

IMO $7 is not your concern in the short to near term.

 

Short term beans need to bounce off $9.XX and so far have been content to slowly grind down to the number.

 

Next and hugely critical is $8.  I am not sure if we see $8 this fall and winter or not.  If we do then $7 and $6 could come quicker than thought.  IMO $6 and $7 are a year out type of deal conditional on large stocks from 14, then large crop from SA in 15, and huge NA 15 acres and also a good crop.

 

So dont get me wrong, while it looks darkest before dawn, I dont think we can write in that its going to happen just yet, and its going to take some continued and likely added bearish points to make it happen.

 

Short term, if we bounce off $9 and get a lower production number this fall either from less acres or less yield, that changes things.  Then you have a situation where soya and corn might be bidding acres, instead of corn bidding acres and soya going so what.  Also keep in mind SA is just now planting and we have no idea of crop size there.  And NA could have production issues in 15 too.  Course if they bury us in stocks and then use 48 on 90M acres for 15 projections, well here comes $6.

 

 

0 Kudos
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: ahhhhh mt

buck

 

1.  just cause you got the boot doesnt mean you cant view the threads, or do a search and copy the link over.  IMO thats not an excuse if you truely wanna prove your point.

 

Otherwise, good day sir.

0 Kudos
425Cat
Advisor

Re: So how bad could it get

I would concur MT on on your bean scenario. Just too much pent up demand to go to 7 now
0 Kudos
vrbuck
Advisor

Re: So how bad could it get

If you knew anything about technical timing you would have said"6dollar beans by the January crop report😞
0 Kudos