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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: So vr Bucky, you ready to concede yet

Great point Cat.

 

I like the x4 decadal study as well as the other Time stuff.

 

Argueing crop size has always been a waste of emotion. Just locally, with 2 tenths this week, corn looks great but will need water to finish more than 5% above trend (that means it will be 5% above trend with no more rain btw)  , beans are AVERAGE at best and likely below average in reality. So, maybe we would all be better served to admit corn will be solid and beans are yet to be determined since we do not know average rainfall in august. I'll still say national bean yield can be from 33 to 47 with the top end going down 2 per week from here forward with below average water.

 

Just from a price and time perspective, beans are far over-valued versus just about everything else on the planet (other than the meats of course). jmo

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: So vr Bucky, you ready to concede yet

Just need an address Mizzou and I'll send you the check for the steak dinner from last summer. You won the bet (by 3 tenths of a bu on the final I think)  and I won the war. Haven't delivered any grain under $6 yet and won't have to this fall either. Smiley Very Happy Happy to lose bets and win wars. My failure was getting sucked into your PEAK vortex of lunacy. The Mizzou PEAK Lunacy Vortex. Smiley Wink

 

You can private message me with name and address.

 

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425Cat
Advisor

Re: So vr Bucky, you ready to concede yet

Time would you say beans are overvalued if the yield comes in below 40???
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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: So vr Bucky, you ready to concede yet

Dude they aren't going to yield under 40 get real
Farmerjoe79
Senior Contributor

Re: So vr Bucky, you ready to concede yet

Time that's why you lost out on the last 4 years of good prices:). It's good you can get some of that back now. I got some neighbors that did the same as you did and locked in from 2010 to 2013 and produced half a crop and got half price.
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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: So vr Bucky, you ready to concede yet

I haven't to be reminded of all the young tigers out there that lack the experience I have, and remember how bad prices can get. I bet tiger didn't see the 80's farm economy, the 93 floods, the 98 hog meltdown, the post 96 grain meltdown, the ldp 's, the post 08 meltdown . It is crazy to think we will never se grain below 5 dollars. These are the same people mortgaging their future for 12000-20000. I bet tiger never collected an ldp while farming.
vrduck
Visitor

Re: So vr Bucky, you ready to concede yet

If it doesnt rain in August beans could come well below 40.

roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: So vr Bucky, you ready to concede yet

Just glad you picked the "d"..........Smiley Wink

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: So vr Bucky, you ready to concede yet

farmerjoe...we didn't miss out on the high prices in 11, 12, or 13. Average corn price in 2012 was about $8. It is possible to protect price and get out and refix if the events require it.

 

The gap higher in beans that HELD TODAY is the signal that we use to exit hedges, gap higher any time after July 5th, exit and rehedge if the gap is filled. Corn has no gap, so since it does not confirm, we will only lighten up to 75% sold and wait to see what happens. If the gap higher can hold going into the afternoon on Thursday, I would expect some fireworks in the beans on Friday.

 

That said, wheat should give everyone pause. Corn follows as do beans, no insurance protection if the thing collapses after the fall price fix. A rally into the fall and then a decline to the normal winter low in the 2nd year after a drought... that is what normally happens...so normal would create an immense amount of pain for those with cost above $4, or $11 beans.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: So vr Bucky, you ready to concede yet

Totally agree with you ROAR. Beans are completely up in the air on yield at this point. A big hurricane and the 45 is easy to get. The current forecast and 40 will be tough to get. To bad we planted so many acres, really takes the fear out of things.

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