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Honored Advisor

So, who sells at these prices?

I mean primarily new crop of $8.14 beans and $3.25 corn.   Beans are off $1.50 off their highs and corn …..off 25 cents off theirs Smiley Very Happy  I`m laughing because corn didn`t fall that much compared to beans, especially when we`re trading a 182 crop now.  But who goes into their elevator tomorrow and says "yeah, I want to sell 50% or 100% of my APH on corn and beans $3.25 and $8.14"?   Not saying it won`t drop further or wouldn`t be smart to put a tourniquet on the hemorrhaging wound, even at these prices, but I have a feeling there aren`t many/any sellers at these prices.

 

If that`s the case couldn`t "the crooks" safely drop the price further, they aren`t going to get anything bought at higher prices, perhaps they can scare the bejeebers out of growers and shake more loose at lower prices.

 

*We got hit with more rain last night 2"-9" what isn`t underwater is waterlogged, not conducive to forward selling at any price in this area.   Pretty safe for a grain merchandizer to go on an extended vaycay as slow as it will be `til harvest.  I guess my hope is that it dries out by harvest, to say nothing of finishing the post bean spraying, thank goodness the pre`s are holding so far.  It`ll be too late for flexstar if one wants to stay on label.

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27 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: So, who sells at these prices?

Couldn't be due to a trade war launched by who ?
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Senior Contributor

Re: So, who sells at these prices?

Who is selling? Traders are selling, commodities they don't have and can't deliver.😁
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Veteran Contributor

Re: So, who sells at these prices?

some days elcheapo i believe your brain is on vacation

Senior Contributor

Re: So, who sells at these prices?

Most economists have said that this "trade war "will not affect demand just maybe routed differently. Trade will have to eventually trade the truth!
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Honored Advisor

Re: So, who sells at these prices?

I can`t see the actual "growers" rushing out to sell at these prices.  We`re below crop insurance RA guarantees and I have to admit I`ll almost certainly collect on yield this year....might as well collect on price too.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: So, who sells at these prices?

Like I said before isolated economies  never prosper....I said already that China has options now...The U.S. isn't the only soybeans producing country in the world... Call Pete Navarro and ask him how much of our national debt China owns... how much interest is paid to them on annual basis? And what would happen if they start dumping US Bonds? Most of the trading is done by algorithms... not much human interaction... except for when they put the info into the algo.... I used to trade corn in the pit and I've always believe that commodities should trade in an open outcry environment.... and algo only takes numbers into account....that should be used for financial instruments. Farmers should stop thinking year to year....you have to think further down the road and on a global basis... Our president does not give a ***** about you.... try to see what he's doing without any bias towards anything just how is it going to affect you...I'm going to give you a bit... he lower taxes for the rich and corporations permanently, however, people like you and I dont get that... the tax goes up after a few years.... with all the loopholes and breaks what was actually a 35% of gross income for the rich will come down to around 20% to 25%. NOW, lowering the tax for the rich to 20% and keeping some of the loopholes... we r already running a 1 trillion deficit.....now really think who our president cares about because u and i are gonna pay for that....its kind of moronic to lower taxes.... and then start a trade dispute with the rest of the world...it makes no sense....good thing for crop insurance... u r gonna needed this year... how long do you think that program is gonna last?

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Re: So, who sells at these prices?

I sold everything in the bin from last year and half of this year's corn crop, and even 5000 bushels of NEXT years corn crop during the rally back when Argentina's drought was in the news.  Couple of truckloads of beans over $10, and a couple of truckloads of corn for over $4 for July '19. Lowest forward sale on beans is $9.44 for new crop this year, and cheapest corn is $3.60 for new crop '19 delivery.

 

Now I'll have room in the bins for this year's soggy crop, and can wait until summer '19 if needed for the next rally.

 

In fact, these might be the highest price beans I've raised in a while. Trade war panic seems sure to get me an insurance check this year between the fact that I've got 40-60 acres of beans under water right now, and the low prices. But if I bin the whole crop and wait fir the trade thing to blow over, I might be able to sell them for $9 or more next year.

 

When the market offers you prices that you can make money on, that is NOT the time to get greedy and hope for higher prices.  You HAVE to sell SOMETHING. 

 

China needs us more than we need them. I am not happy but willing to do my part to stop their theft of our intellectual property and the hacking of our corporate and government systems. People are always afraid of change, but buckle up, check you plans and assumptions, and hang on.  Won't be long before the "new normal" is here, and we'll get used to that and hope it doesn't change!

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Honored Advisor

Re: So, who sells at these prices?

I'm not sure many folks realize that China has to buy MORE products from the U.S. to offset some of this imbalance.   I'm just waiting for the grain traders to get that memo.   It seems this memo is on a slow boat to China.   Smiley Wink

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Senior Contributor

Re: So, who sells at these prices?

How much of our federal debt does china own?
Here's a better question. Does it matter? What is the( not the amount) national debt? What is it made of? How does our monetary work that makes it irrelavent? Why is it an issue among politics? How many average citezens knows how our monetary system and our federal debt system works and the actual mechanics?
Look it up!

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