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Senior Advisor

Sold some 2010 corn today

About 50% of corn crop assuming modest yields.

 

You may be confident of a much higher market. If so I will sell some more and contract some 2011 as well.

 

Just telling you so that when local bids get a buck higher, you can tell  me what a dumb bunny I was back on september 3 2010.

 

Tempted on beans as well.

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11 Replies
Contributor

Re: Sold some 2010 corn today

For most farmers that would be a big sale.  Why not sell in smaller increments? 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Sold some 2010 corn today

Good job Krafty!  Ther may be something higher but there will surely be something lower too.  Runups this time around won't be steady to higher they will be sideways for awhile. JR

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Senior Advisor

Re: Sold some 2010 corn today

I probably would have sold it all if I knew how much there will be. Hopefully it stays strong into harvest so I can sell the rest. I can live rather nicely with $4 corn provided I get decent yields. 200 bu per acre produces $800 per acre. I bought my first farm for a few dollars more than that.

 

I usually sell in larger chunks but not usually this large a chunk.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Sold some 2010 corn today

You will never go broke selling for a profit.

I have not been tempted with corm ,yet!

Grow IP soys and they want me to price them before Dec 1st so I started them back in April and finally sold another increment today for $45 more a tonne than the APril sale. Expect to sell more next week whatever happens to price to get to at least 50% sold on 5 year average yield.

I expect to have a great yield so still have lots to sellSmiley Wink

70% of 2010 wheat gone at average price $185/t price now $197.

15% of 2011 wheat priced at $204/t  

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Senior Contributor

Re: Sold some 2010 corn today

Did I tell you I was bullish corn????? Smiley Happy

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Good deal. Pretty nice 35 day window here

to get rid of ALOT at these higherprices or everything, and let someone else store it.

 

After say Mid Oct the Up party will likely be long over for things like corn.

 

Every week Net Cash is higher ...haul some in to reward and TRAIN the market.

 

Heck 4 + to 4.50 net cash on corn is a 33 to 50% price up in said product over the past 9 to 10 months ...that's a pretty respectable market Up for anything.

 

If the market makes a total 50% correction ( starting Mid  Oct )  off net cash of say 4.35...that's going to total  60 to 70 cents lower back to the Mid 3's net cash level going into 011.

 

How many birthdays might it take to run back towards the Mid 4's net cash again in the current / future  usa economy?

hmmmm.....more than many may live to count perhaps.

 

No flow up equity deals in the usa ( they do not understand how to structure em )...and the trickle down deal is based on more debt for the masses, is over gamed, thus trickles nowhere for all but a very select few.

 

 

 

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Highlighted
Contributor

Re: Good deal. Pretty nice 35 day window here

Please describe the nuts and bolts of a "flow up equity deal"

 

thanks

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Senior Advisor

Re: Sold some 2010 corn today

Yes you did and I hope you are right. I'd rather sell the rest for more rather than less.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Just the start od a Bull Market!

What the Heck are you selling.

"No flow up equity deals in the usa ( they do not understand how to structure em )...and the trickle down deal is based on more debt for the masses, is over gamed, thus trickles nowhere for all but a very select few."

Your concern about a 50% correction after the run up of tthe last 9 to 10 months is a little overdone, The market runup has been fundamentaly driven! Wheat disaster in Russia,  Pakistan's crop problems continue and India is letting their's rot from what I read.The exports for Corn Soy and Wheat have been very solid I think our final  corn & Soy crop yields will continue to decrease. This upturn in prices has been very orderly and is based on strong usage! plus dimishing supplies. Any users of grain should have their supplies bought up or rpice protected already. The cattle industry and hog industry has had anice run up in prices which will allow profitability at these higher grain prices. Unlike the 2007 when grain prices screamed up and the livestock industry fell on it's face. I would hope that livestock producers have their feed cost locked in. I am thinking that up to 9-11 months ago we were in a downtrending market since 2007. Call it a correction if you would like.

We are now into a uptrend market with strong demand supporting it. China will keep importing our grains! The dollar goes up they will buy even more in fear of it going even higher! Grains are the most needed asset of the US that they need They already have the credit to buy them. There are a lot of funds in the market but all those funds are in the money and they will have that money to invest in even more grains. That's when the markets will really start to pick up. In 2007 the prices were going up at the start of Oct and continued on up up till July. Bullish factors to lead the way, Russia's wheat acres to dry to plant (could change). ban on exports till when-longer than short, fianal US crop size will be smaller, 2011 planting acres will be in strong competition with soy. We alreadyt know that wheat acres are expanding by a whole bunch which will rob corn and Soy acres. This may make the Bull market of 2007 look like nothing. Because of the increased volatility as the markets go up a lot more farmers will sell everthing at $5.00 watch out then.   

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