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Honored Advisor

Some green on the screen overnite

Corn up 2 to 4, beans up 4 to 5.   After the infamous report, grains didn`t continue on a parabolic march downward....yet.   Have we achieved peak shortness in the market?  I don`t know but, the kitchen sink was thrown at the market and first chance to trade wasn`t down 10 to 12, of course it`s before sunrise, maybe the bears aren`t awake yet.   Smiley Happy

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9 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: Some green on the screen overnite

Up like an escalator down like an elevator.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Some green on the screen overnite

Nope......up like an old man walking up the stairs and down like falling off a cliff.

 

Gravity is an amazing thing. 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Some green on the screen overnite

That is an even better analogy!
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Some green on the screen overnite

Don't forget to make a killing on the dead cat bounce.  Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Some green on the screen overnite

You guys are hard to cheer up   Smiley Happy

 

Image result for tough crowd meme

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Some green on the screen overnite

The post by Blacksand in Farm Business has really impacted me. A 35 year old who was farming and evaluated his position and had the courage to make the decision to make a change. I am closer to 50 and probably should have made the same decision at 35 but hung on and took on too much during the mini boom we had a few years ago. Now I am struggling with the low prices like a lot of others are. It seems like everybody is working harder with less and not feeling good about it. Crop insurance guarantees pay the operating expenses but dont do anything for debt service or living. I am not complaining about my situation, I made the choices that led me to this point. Just a little depressing to look at where prices are and where they need to be.

As far as where prices need to be that is different for everyone. I just need to accept the fact that the decisions I have made have probably made the prices I need unattainable.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Some green on the screen overnite

I`m in a similar boat Nutlug,  where I made a mistake was thinking inflation was bailing us out into perpetuity.  Grain would be high into the future but inputs would increase higher, enabling someone with a decent owned land base the ability to comfortably coast on the fact there wouldn`t be exorbitant land rent to pay.   20/20 hindsight that wasn`t the case, grain prices dropped basically in half and fertilizer and seed didn`t budge, the farmer got both spearheads.  

 

After having the pretty drug off me, I admit that the glory years of 2009-2014 were an aberration, probably the youngest farmer reading this won`t have grandchildren that will see years like 2009-2014.  I would say we are paying for that "party" now, seed companies so far have flown under the radar on paying any party expense .   But I think it`s coming, they can`t continally be plucking feathers off us golden gooses without it eventually catching up to them.  The Bigshots buy their seed for 50% and the little guys that remain will be forced into $100/bag Epley seed.  

 

We might hopefully find a happy medium in the future where everyone will find a niche.  I think you look at what happened with hogs of 25yrs ago a buying station on every corner and 2 farrow to finish hog farms on each section.   Hogs went to 8 cents in 1994 and those left in 1998 were put out of their misery with 20 cent hogs.   Something similar probably will happen in grain.  Went to a sale with a low houred 8130 tractor 9450 combine and other mint condition equipment it was used on a 300 acre farm!  Probably $800,000 in machinery to farm 300 acres  at one time   Smiley Happy    There`s no way he afforded that machinery picking eggs, milking cows and sloping hogs.   he farmed because it was fun, he wanted to and he had the money...no banker would borrow that kind of money, he was independently wealthy and instead of bird watching, he farmed.   The CBOT prices would have zero effect on someone like that.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Some green on the screen overnite

Curiousity has gotten the better of me.  Why would (did) someone in that situation sell out?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Some green on the screen overnite

He retired, this is part of it at a consignment auction.  IMO things might`ve went even higher at the well manicured homeplace instead of amongst consignment junk of others.

 

Tractors: 2008 John Deere 8130 (MFWD, 1230 hours, One owner, 4 remotes, rear duals, rock box, quick hitch), 1995 John Deere 7600 (3492 hours, Power Quad, 3 remotes, One Owner, duals, weights, quick hitch).

Tillage, Planting, Spraying, and Hay Equipment: John Deere 2810 plow (5 bottom), IH 47 Disk, John Deere 980 Field Cultivator (25’), John Deere 7200 Planter (12 row, 30”, 250 monitor), Brillion Cultimulching Drill (10’), Work Saver 3 point Spreader, John Deere 400 hoe (30’), John Deere RM Cultivator (6 row), Hardi 220 Ranger Sprayer, John Deere No. 5 Sickle Mower.

Combine, Heads, and Wagons: 2001 John Deere 9450 (One owner 1484-967 hours), John Deere 693 Corn Head (Poly), John Deere 920F Platform, Brent 644 wagon (nice), Parker 605 Wagon (fenders, tarp, only used one season).

Note: Russell is a good care taker and the majority of his equipment is one owner. Several hard to find, low hour pieces.

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