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Something I've always wondered about


A lot of talk around the periphery in recent years about massive warehouse stocks of copper in China because of a system where traders were able to borrow and endlessly rehypothecate against inventory.


I'll have to admit that I have always wondered about the whole Chinese commodity story in light of our experience in '94-'95 where every, and I mean every single western analyst totally misread the surge in Chinese corn exports. 


I have absolutely 0 basis on which to say the same sort of thing is happening with soybeans but it continues to gnaw on me from time to time.


Placing it in proper perspective of how to handle it or anything else that is far outside the paradigm of how we think the world is operating- the charts will tell you if something is going haywire. Maybe not as soon as you'd hoped but if a chart starts performing in a way that is grossly different than how your worldview says it should, pay attention.


Currently there is nothing at all in the way of price behavior to indicate anything of the sort.