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Veteran Advisor

Sonny Perdue says it might not be until late next fall before we see ......but..

Sonny Perdue says it might not be until late next fall before we see if China will honor their commitments under Phase One.   But realistically, we don't have ten months, we need to make planting decisions much sooner.  If 74 million acres and 3.6 billion bushels are already too much for available demand why on earth should we plant 85-88 million acres and harvest 4.6 billion bushels? 

  Honestly, I was really hoping that a trade deal would take that threat of 95 million acres of corn off the table but we need to know that sooner than later.  Look at what happened last year, producers planted 90 million acres of corn despite 11 million prevent planted.

  The truth of the matter is, we're really no better off today than three weeks ago.  People are saying we're being impatient but that's simply not true.  We're skeptical and have every reason to be.

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Sonny Perdue says it might not be until late next fall before we see ......but..

Maybe  this  could  be  compared  to  getting  2  free  tickets  to  the  2021  NF'L  Pro  Bowl   - ?  

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Honored Advisor

Re: Sonny Perdue says it might not be until late next fall before we see ......but..

I want President Trump re elected, decisively electorally and popular vote, I`ll openly admit that right up front.  Since Xi dislikes our president and probably fancies himself as a "Art of War" aficionado, he could string us along right up to the election and then pull the rug out in an "October surprise".  In order to punish and get rid of the only president that would stand up to China.  

That is a possibility.  If you want market clues, I would say watch what and where China buys ag products closely from now on.  Brazil has a record crop coming this spring, we are sitting on 2019 crop. Soooo, what is China going to do?  Buy our old crop beans FIRST or buy Brazil`s beans next?   We will know one way or another if Phase One is real when Brazil`s combines roll, plenty of time before our planters roll. 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: "Buy Brazil's beans first....", well, I think we already know.

 By the end of the past Oct, something like 40% of Brazil's beans had already been sold, and who knows how much more since then.  Given that China routinely buys over half of Brazil's beans, it's a safe bet that a good portion of that is consigned to China.

  In fact, the Chinese have already said, "we've got contracts with cancelation penalties. We're not going to cancel them."

  It might be early summer before we see any Chinese buying.

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Honored Advisor

Re: "Buy Brazil's beans first....", well, I think we already know.

Well, they can offer US BINDING contracts then too, right?  How many times in the past has China CANCELLED shipments from us with no restocking fee?

I do think you`re reading too much into this, let`s at least give China the chance to live up to their word, I might hate them, but a bargain is a bargain until it isn`t.  

By the end of March look at the prices that the trade is offering.   I mean what good does it do us now?  If they take the tariffs off our bargain basement prices, some forward thinking endusers over there will step up for US beans in favor of the "$11 Brazilian beans", right?

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Advisor

Re: Sonny Perdue says it might not be until late next fall before we see ......but..

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Sonny Perdue says it might not be until late next fall before we see ......but..

Yep, a negative in everything. Just admit that there is no way you will find anything good in anything that happens and move on, stop wasting time depressing yourselves, take some meds.

"The targets are so high china cannot meet them"...such bogus math....the whole time the article ignores how much China is already importing from other places. The increases require them to purchase less than they already are purchasing, they just have to buy it from us...in exchange for us continuing to buy from them all that we currently do.

Of course, XI is not going to sign this with Trump, kind of proves Trump made him give in on some things. Actually, that pretty well disproves all the depression and trash talk about the deal. If he would have flown over with 8 plane loads of his friends, you know the deal he got was really good. Not showing face, and signing while everyone is on the New Year vacation, kind of means they don't like the deal very much.  :-)

I have no idea how it works out, but this is a pretty good chance it better than the markets are trading at this point.

Honored Advisor

Re: Sonny Perdue says it might not be until late next fall before we see ......but..

China has contracts with cancellation penalties........since when?    This is just BS.    

Just watch what they do.....not what they say.  

Continue with the hammer down approach until the U.S. products leave on a ship........and......the check clears.  

No Chinese ship gets unloaded here until a U.S. ship gets unloaded there.    It's as simple as that.   

Veteran Advisor

Re: Sonny Perdue says it might not be until late next fall before we see ......but..

China loves Trump, he's purely transactional and they understand that.

Might want to keep an eye out for whether they do an "investigation" into the Bidens as he recently requested in public. There'd be some sort of quid pro quo expected.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Sonny Perdue says it might not be until late next fall before we see ......but..

1  Wasn't  all  that  long  ago,  someone  was  boasting  of  closing  our  southern  border ,  &  we are  still  waiting -  -  -

2  The  Chinese  are  buying  beans,  to  feed  their  Carolina  Hog  venture  -  -  - 

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