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Senior Contributor

Soybean Backdrop 13/14 crop prices

Soybeans Backdrop.  Soon we will have the USDA Nov estimate and roughly that will be that. We can feed in the #. In 12/13 we had to ration a short crop and the process took longer than usual in prior rationing yrs where oft the rationing was completed early.  2013/2014, we will be using more but back to 11/12 levels or.

 

All grains are less demand elastic vs. 5 10 20 yrs back. Hog, poultry industries are “used” to plentiful supply. Seem more quantity orientated vs. price. Somehow appear to be handle price volatility and periods of high rises better than decades past. roducers used to high prices of recent years, are a culprit. Vs realizing $14-18 isn’t a new world but poor Wx sourced.  This is negative as producers are undersold.  

S. America is blooming, these are great prices, port problems and on an on, are temporary a distraction. Their crops will get to market. It is Ag Econ 001, high prices attract planting expansions. Weather comes and goes it can be better than avg worse or avg. It isn’t bad every year. !! As too many seem to think.

 

Ideas from here. I think the USDA # sets the beginning point and from there net, based on the above,  we are in for a long slow bear market.

 

Other views, please share your views. I need to be questioned!! 

Pritch.

 

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3 Replies
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Senior Advisor

Re: Soybean Backdrop 13/14 crop prices

So you say demand is inelastic but talk of demand destruction.

Freakin moron
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Senior Contributor

Re: Soybean Backdrop 13/14 crop prices

Moron ic ? toughy with corn beans making lows ?Understood.

 

big picture demand elasicity is lower than 5 10 15 yrs ago. More Inelastic. Hard to grasp?

No one said "demand destruction" Fruiderin Slip?  

The beans were NOT there to use in 12/13, that iuss WHY use was down it had to be ! 

In 13/14 the crop is there, use will rebound. High protein SM and BO are  are essential suppliersto world

needs. Other oilseeds compete, but suoya dominates and will continue to do so. Demand will grow

as it always has and producers, science, respond to produce what is needed.   

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Senior Advisor

Re: Soybean Backdrop 13/14 crop prices

Inwonder howmmany prevented corn acres went to beans. If you din't have insurance you would be inclined to plant something.

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