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Veteran Advisor

Soybean Carryout Guesses?

Would anyone like to place a wager on the soybean carryout number to be released Tuesday?  I've seen 555 million bushels talked about.  What will that do to the market?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean Carryout Guesses?

Report will be based on 30 day old data/guesses.

 

Lots of changes since then.

 

At least 9,000,000 million metric TONS decrease from Argentina

 

Possibility of hitting critical mass in bean side of things.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean Carryout Guesses?

Who on here have cash beans uncontracted,, unhedged, not committed, just sitting in a bin?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'll go first, 

 

I do.'

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Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean Carryout Guesses?

Basis just improved 3 ¢ , little bit ago.

 

Who'd a thunk it, $10 beans , up 13 and a three cent push in basis.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean Carryout Guesses?

No matter what usda publishes  we won't know.

 

Our only clue as usual will be basis change and that won't be accurate to world  supply since it only shows local shortage.

 

IMO a negative world supply can be hidden for years.

 

Funny though China seems to thing a supply on hand in reserve is protection their power structure (and possibly feeds their public)

 

Wow those guys are so smart.

 

 

Anybody notice that Brazil bought some US beans??  That's right....... we will never know but selling china some beans this time of year might be a clue.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybean Carryout Guesses? 125 mill bu

Cause that's All there Is. Go try and find 125k bu to buy...bet ya cannot find em in the country...maybe you can find that much at say 5 elevators combined..and that'll cost ya...cause they'll know then that they have oversold the game.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybeans. Let's talk $14

Then at least they're worth maybe talking about...then again I happen to like talk at more towards 15.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Soybean Carryout Guesses?

Basis .25 cents better here, from last Tuesday, demand is picking up at the gulf.... so I hear

Beans in the bin.... Yes
Don't know what the hell I'm waiting on...
10.60 May delivery now!!
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Honored Advisor

Re: Soybeans. Let's talk $14

It keeps reminding me of all the ground piles we look at in the winter, and every paid pungent calls "carry".  I always wonder how many of those piles after harvest are already in the hands of end users......... I know they are in this area.  That is why we have ground piles, to keep it here where it is needed.  Not to show our surplus for the cameras.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybean Carryout Guesses?

Does it really matter anymore ?
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