cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean Carryout Guesses?

Not in the current press. It just takes too much research budget to go after better sources than usda.
Farmers and grain exporters keep real data guarded.
0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean Carryout Guesses?

I'm with ya el cheapo.   It doesn't matter because we will never run out.    

0 Kudos
Advisor

Re: Soybean Carryout Guesses?

Sold them out of the field to pay the rent haven’t had the option to store beans in 6 years. So, does it matter I guess that depends on who you ask.
0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybean Carryout Guesses?

"Farmers and grain exporters keep real data guarded."

 

Farmers lose in that scenario.  What difference does it make to you if I hide the ownership of 10,000 bushels of beans?  Nada.  But the exporter has his information plus a lot more.  The exporter can probably make some educated guesses about where the market is going.

 

If all the farmers hide their data it only means that in the land of the blind (the farmers), the one-eyed man (the exporter or big processor) is king.

 

The only hope for the farmer is for everyone to know everything.  After all, this is a commodity market.

 

I think the reason most farmers don't reveal their grain stocks is fear of how their neighbors will use that information to make judgments about their worth and farming ability, not with any real hope of confusing the grain markets or profiting from hiding the existence of their 10,000 bushels of beans.

 

 

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean Carryout Guesses?

Sorry Jim your wrong about the neighbors knowing, I hired the neighbors kid to level out all the tops of the bins. Absolutely no secret here, especially when I rented the bin site of his uncle, and he and a cousin leveled them off too. 

 

Pretty sure they know...

 

About how much of what.

How bad a marketer I am

How good I am at hoarding.

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean Carryout Guesses?

Often it falls on the other side Jim and farmers are the worst. They most often overreport to impress. And they over estimate by selective memory. The won’t accept responsibility for the one that got hailed out or the bottom third of their yields. They hide their mistakes.
0 Kudos