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05-17-2018 01:23 AM
SOYBEANS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
BY PORT AREA AND COUNTRY OF DESTINATION
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 10, 2018
-- METRIC TONS --
CHINA T 1029 INDONESIA 1886
CHINA T 2205 MALAYSIA 1518
NETHERLANDS 52746 THAILAND 1347
COLOMBIA 7436 DOMINICN REP 3299
EGYPT 166192 INDONESIA 25256
JAPAN 31815 MEXICO 11256
CHINA MAIN 125454
BANGLADESH 661 CHINA MAIN 2718
CHINA T 34929 EL SALVADOR 24
INDONESIA 20885 JAPAN 708
KOREA REP 1886 MALAYSIA 5436
MALI 490 MEXICO 55607
PHILIPPINES 293 THAILAND 10749
05-17-2018 10:27 AM - edited 05-17-2018 10:33 AM
My reference to screaming was the simple fact that the market kept getting good news and failed to rally to new highs, actually failing miserably on some pretty bullish dream data from NASS. The COT data, especially in meal, shows the specs extremely long. And the technical indicators, including the timing indicators, and most importantly the normal seasonal tendency to top either the week of 4/10 or the first week of May, all should be concerning.
I certainly agree that there could be some fireworks in July/August driven by weather, but it is a long time till August, probably 1000 tweets away... :-)
We planted a couple hundred acres extra of corn as well, mostly because it looked like the northern tier might have trouble getting the corn planted in a timely manner. Clearly it is all going to get planted this week or next, so maybe that was an error.
Hobby's plan is probably the best one! Now, what is his corn plan?
05-17-2018 11:54 AM
If you`d a asked me 6 months ago what I thought the bean prices would be today, my guess would`ve been $1 lower ...because I listen to gurus and they somehow get through my filter. I think the price of beans is good right now, don`t get me wrong you aren`t making much if anything on them, but you aren`t losing as much as expected 6 months ago.
I`d actually be a little worried if beans were $1 higher, we need a price that doesn`t scare away buyers and this is right where you want to be, like a runner, you don`t want to lead the entire race, because it isn`t sustainable.
On the trade side of the ledger, China and North Korea are in chute #1. We buy $400 billion more from China, so when negotiating starts it`ll only be logical that China buys more beans from us being it`s about the only thing they buy from the US. And North Korea coming into the 21st century! after President Trump and Kim sit down, a new market of US pork & beans for some very hungry people will be opened and we`ll be right there as the door opens. No, I`m bullish beans!
05-17-2018 12:17 PM
The joy of farming in fringe weather territory on a flood plain.
Not wise to sell it before it's in the bin. Can and has flooded every month of the year here.
My plan is to continue to be a grow it, bin it, sell it, kind of farmer
Nothing rented just farm my own, No slim margins to worry about.
Being one or two years behind marketing is less stressful.
Cop is then a known,
Really interesting watching a couple of these marketing firms squirming buying/selling this crop multiple times in their text messages. Their dog doesn't hunt at my place...nothing ventured, nothing lost.
05-17-2018 09:24 PM
That is true Hobbyfarmer, you`re lucky if you know your cost of production in December and even then check your grain bins! Someone living in Manhattan in their pajamas can sell new crop corn, the board is really a casino if you want to be honest about it.