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Senior Contributor

Re: Soybean Pics

Well I still think the corn isn't going to be the disaster you believe.... but it is fast becoming nothing to write home about..... and it isn't from frost! Smiley Wink 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybean Pics

in summary then (compared to last yr) - I've heard 70% ND, 50% MN, WI, IA 60% ----THINK I EVEN SAW 60% normal IN.

 

MT printed $17.00 --- one other printed $20.00 --- this is into next spring/summer. IMHPO - not sure anyone has a sense on where price will need to be..

 

if yields come in where they are looking to come in, I say double those prices...call me insane....but i look long term (wkly) at where the puck's going to go.

 

 

do the math -- say everyones underestimating by 10-20%....much of the Delta is sucking, as well-----look at the maps above.

Nationally, if we get 75% of last yr = 2.25............................r u yankin' me??????????? 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybean Pics

As long as I'm at this tonight, how about a sunspot update?

The sun is unusually quite. Usually, as the sun begins to swap its poles, the sun gets very active due to the magnetic turbulence. Usually, it gets very active near the sun's equator. Right now though, it's really quiet. What does it mean? Maybe nothing. The sun has stronger and weaker solar maxes. This may be just a weak solar max, or it may be an extended solar max. Like our crop production, time will tell.

Jen
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybean Pics

Jen,

 

does the sun activity point to any SA pattern???...YET

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybean Pics

CX1!!!!! Now there is a bold, BOLD prediction! WHEW! I do see $15.00. No problem. But, to get where you're predicting, it means getting the funds on board in a very big way. With the way this year has gone on the futures, I can't see piling on at this point. I think if it was going to happen, we'd already be seeing it. There is no secret on the US beans. Something else is at work here. I don't know what. But as I've said many times, it's a weird year in this corn and bean market. Eventually, we'll see how this all shakes out. I agree we should be higher, tight, tight carry out, and a crop that's going to suck. With an El-niño possibility effecting SA yields, what is the trade thinking here? It seems like a no brainer. Something is amiss....

Jen
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybean Pics

i have a huge range from 2450 ( double Aug lows) on up........and yes taking a while to materialize.

 

even if we are close to what people are saying,........ i mean $18 won't do for the rationing job??

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybean Pics

My correlation with sunspots has to do with the overall temp patterns on Earth. Which, in turn, affects many, many other aspects of the Earths' weather. And these are the harder changes to measure. Changes in the jet stream, in the ocean currents, in ocean temps, in the amount of fresh water being dumped into the ocean, the amount of solar radiation no longer reflected due to a smaller snow pack at he earths' poles, and others that we don't even know about. Our climate is changing. Earths' climate has changed before. How will it affect our ability to grow food for a world population that is increasing exponentially? Will modern agriculture be able to keep up with the changes? Could we be at the "peak" of many things? I don't know. They're questions that plague and frighten me. In many ways, I'm glad I am as old as I am. As much as I yearn to see what we discover in the coming decades, I'm equally frightful on where we could go as a civilization. No, I'm not a prepper. I don't have a huge vault with guns and ammo. From what I see, these publicized "preppers" don't have much more ability to survive a holicost than I do. All of them miss the long term basics of what's needed for life long term. Ability to grow food, clean water, sanitation. These people seem stuck on protecting their tiny cache of goods. But I have really strayed from our subject matter here. Sorry. And to think, it all started with a sunspot...

Jen
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybean Pics

Do I think we should go to $18.00? Based on the last few years, yes. But this is this year. I'm uncomfortable predicting something that high. It just seems that the market is telling us that it doesn't any longer care if we run out of a given commodity. If we run out, we run out. But the end users are not going to pay anymore than they are. And maybe that's what my saying the markets are weird is really all about. Which means that our supply and demand equations are no longer working. The question of course is - why aren't they?

Jen
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybean Pics

Jen,

 

I don't see anything that says s/d equations r no longer working......SA, also had a big supply to burn off?

 Beans are tracking 2003 almost in step, so far. looks like US has already sold for export - around 850 mil bu.....if we end up with 75%  of last yrs crop, this leaves 250 mil left for export and yr just began........it's all in the numbers.

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Contributor

Re: Soybean Pics

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